Regina Doherty (Meath East, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The projections for 2020-21 in the summer economic statement are not targets but forecasts. They emerge from the overall economic analysis. Any forecasts over the horizon are, by their nature, tentative and depend on the environment. In particular, the impact of Brexit has to be factored into those figures.

It is commonly accepted in a normal labour market that, as people move between jobs and new people are attracted into the labour market, full employment is probably the equivalent to an unemployment rate anywhere between 4% and 5%. This means in Ireland a large number of people will be on the live register at any given time. In a full employment situation, the experience of unemployment will be relatively short for most people. However, on average there is still churn of 100,000 people at any given time during a year, even at full employment. Such people may be between jobs for a number of weeks or months.

One thing has become obvious to me in recent months as I have travelled the country and visited organisations providing training or employment, including the likes of Tús, CE schemes or rural social scheme participants. A large number of people in Ireland are distant and removed from being able to get a job by next Monday. This is not a stereotypical view, which would be wrong. It is not as simple as saying that a given person is a baker but the job available is that of a shopkeeper and the person is not trained correctly. Some people genuinely have real difficulties and disadvantages that will not be fixed by being sent on an Excel training course. We need to recognise this and tailor some of our supports towards those who have real difficulties in accessing the workforce. We need to recognise this and stop referring to these people as long-term unemployed. We should work specifically with people who have extra disadvantage to help them to access the workforce on a concerted basis.

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