Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent) | Oireachtas source

I thank Deputy Barry. As I have indicated in my previous response to these questions, the release of the latest projections of greenhouse gas emissions by the Environmental Protection Agency on 13 April 2017 clearly indicated the enormous challenge facing Ireland to reduce its emissions. The projections indicate that emissions from those sectors of the economy not covered by the EU emissions trading system, ETS, could be between 4% and 6% below 2005 levels by 2020 - a deteriorating position in respect of the achievement of Ireland’s targets for 2020 when compared with previous projections. Though not unexpected, given the welcome return to economic growth in Ireland, it nevertheless confirms that Ireland’s greenhouse emissions continue to track broader trends in the economy and serves to underline the difficult decisions ahead of us as we try to reduce emissions in line with our international commitments.

In relation to the targets for 2020, Ireland has an emissions reduction target for each year between 2013 and 2020 under the 2009 EU effort sharing decision. For 2020 itself, the target set for Ireland is that emissions should be 20% below their level in 2005. This will be Ireland’s contribution to the overall EU objective to reduce its emissions by the order of 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Ireland’s target is jointly the most demanding 2020 reduction target allocated to EU member states under this decision, which is shared only with Denmark and Luxembourg.

The projected shortfall to our targets in 2020 reflects both the constrained investment capacity over the past decade due to the economic crisis and the extremely challenging nature of the target itself. In fact, it is now accepted that Ireland’s 2020 target was not consistent with what would be achievable on an EU-wide cost-effective basis.

In order to maximise Ireland's emissions reductions and address the gap to the 2020 target, it will also be necessary to pursue other available options, in addition to the introduction of further policies and measures planned through the national mitigation plan.

The legislative framework governing the EU's 2020 emissions reduction targets includes a number of flexibility mechanisms to enable member states to meet their annual emissions targets, including provisions to bank any excess allowances to future years and to trade allowances between member states. Using our banked emissions from the period to 2015, Ireland is projected to comply with its emission reduction targets in each of the years 2013 to 2018. However, our cumulative emissions are expected to exceed targets for 2019 and 2020, which will result in a requirement to purchase additional allowances. While this purchasing requirement is not, at this stage, expected to be significant, further analysis will be required to quantify the likely costs involved in light of the final amount and the price of allowances required.

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