Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I assume the Deputy is referring to the economic benefits of a united Ireland. As he will be aware, the principle of consent and the possibility of a change in the constitutional status of Northern Ireland are fundamental parts of the Good Friday Agreement which was endorsed by the people of this island, North and South. The calling of a Border poll under the terms of the Agreement would fall to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. The test to be applied is that he or she considers it likely that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. There is no convincing evidence to suggest a majority of the people of Northern Ireland would opt for a change in its constitutional status. The Taoiseach has been clear in his view that this is not the time for such a process and that the conditions necessary to trigger it do not exist.

Given that there is a very low probability of reunification in the medium term, my Department has not estimated the potential positive, or negative, impacts of an all-Ireland economy and does not have plans to do so. However, given that both jurisdictions are currently part of the Single Market for goods, services, capital and labour, it is likely that many of the benefits of an all-Ireland economy are already in place. In any such study the full range of impacts would have to be considered; in other words, the costs and benefits. By way of example, it would be important to consider the fiscal impacts. As the Deputy will be aware, the state currently accounts for over two thirds of the Northern Irish economy and Northern Ireland currently runs substantial fiscal deficits. There are also material differences in public sector conditions, welfare systems and the overall economic structure of both jurisdictions, all of which would need to be taken into account. The Government is very supportive of North-South economic linkages which are advanced through the North-South Ministerial Council and by Ministers, North and South, collaborating outside that framework on an ongoing basis.

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