Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

My question really concerns how the approach needs to be adjusted if the trend continues. I refer to the budget in October, for example. What impact could there be on the calculation of fiscal space? I acknowledge a number of variables feed into that.

It is not just a question of income tax and corporation tax. The excise yield, for example, is 6.3% below profile. I realise it can be difficult to forecast what the receipts will be in a particular month but if the trend continues there will be a problem.

However, if the trend continues pro rata- it has been €344 million over the first four months - throughout the remainder of the year, the shortfall will be in the region of €1 billion. That is a big "if" and, hopefully, it will not continue. If it did, what issues would that throw up in our approach to the budget?

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