Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party) | Oireachtas source

I am glad to return to the issue of Brexit, which dominated the European Council at the weekend. I found the questions to the Taoiseach very useful and I wish to tease out what is happening. Those of us not in the mind of the British Prime Minister have to guess if we want to understand what is happening. To some extent we are seeing an unravelling of the British Government position. The Prime Minister made a mistake after the referendum last summer and in the run-up to her party conference in October. When she said "Brexit means Brexit", she was like a card player who played a bluff which was very exposed. What does it mean? By taking a strong line and a hard Brexit position she attempted to give the UK Government some negotiating position in what were always going to be difficult and complicated talks.

She also said no deal was better than a bad deal but it is becoming increasingly apparent, even to her own Government, that this is not true and it is especially not be true for this island. No deal and a chaotic crash-out would be disastrous not just for the UK economy but for the Irish economy, North and South. I have a sense that the Prime Minister has developed an understanding of this in recent weeks and the letter triggering Article 50 was far more conciliatory in its tone and in the way it sought openly to look for a deal that made sure the UK stayed as close as possible to the European Union in whatever arrangement was agreed. History will parse the information and will come to its conclusions but I surmise that there was a sense in the UK Cabinet and the Prime Minister's office that they were being steered to the edge of the cliff by some 50 who made up what might be called the "charge of the light-head brigade" - the Tory MPs who, on a purely ideological basis, thought a harsh, immediate Brexit would serve their purposes. One of the main motivations for the recently-called UK election must have been to give the Prime Minister a negotiating position within her own party so that she could avoid being controlled by those MPs who seem to be set on this reckless course.

No one knows what will happen in the election campaign of the next four or five weeks but the return of a larger Tory majority may be of benefit to us in that a Government with a fixed five-year term, a concept which is much weakened in recent weeks, will give us a transition period after the two years of negotiations in which we can try to work out solutions to what will be a very messy situation. I do not think five years is enough and it may take ten or 15 years but the transition period will be slightly easier than if it were to be interrupted midstream by a further UK election.

I was concerned as to why the European Union was taking such a strong position by insisting on the second stream of talks coming after the first round is completed, which will deal with EU citizens' rights, the Brexit bill and resolving border questions, particularly that of the Irish Border. I was taken by what the Taoiseach said in response to my question. I can see the sense of putting our case first. It is not a bad idea to get our issues dealt with and off the table as, in negotiations, it is generally advisable to get in early, get the deal done and get it off the table before it becomes contentious. However, I still have concerns as to whether it is in out interests to take such a hard line position with the UK as it is in an immensely weak position. It is like playing a game of Texas hold'em poker and seeing the UK's hand as well as the flop, and that it has nothing in its hands, which I think it is starting to realise.

The history, purpose and peaceful intent of our Union is to promote collaboration, even in the most difficult of circumstances, which will apply in this case. Our interest is in being collaborative with the UK Government and this should be our approach as now is not the time to rub its nose in the difficult decisions it has to make. I might be missing something and the UK may have an ace in the hole that no one has seen but I am concerned that the tough negotiation, via newspaper leaks, is not clever. No matter how good a deal we get in the early stages of the process it will not envelope all the concerns we have and even if we deal with movement of citizens, there are 1,000 other issues around fisheries, agricultural standards, digital matters, energy trading, etc. It is in our interests to get all the details right and we should avoid playing all our cards in the first round to get a deal on movement of people and the Border. These are important but are not the only issues on which we should negotiate. We have a particular role and capability to act as a slightly different interlocutor. We are not going to go in as the hard guy, leaking to the rest of Europe. The Minister is in the middle of this and has to make the call but I am giving him advice from my perspective. I have a sense that hitting them when they are down, and in a vulnerable position in the middle of an election process, is wrong if it does not lead to a discernible change in their tactics and I am nervous about it.

At the weekend, Cliff Taylor wrote that big countries tended to win. When big countries make calls based on their own national interest, and without checking with the other 27 countries, as happened in recent years in middle of the crisis, mistakes are made. We should stick to a community method. The instinct of Europe has been to be a champion for a different way of doing politics from the big-gain, old-world power rules that used to apply.

Europe has been bedevilled for centuries by this game between France, Germany, Britain and others as to who is up and down and who is kicking whom when they are down. That will not be good for Europe regardless of what the British people have decided. It is not in our interest to go back to that 19th and early 20th century view of the world and type of politics. That is my one piece of advice to the Government today.

I congratulate the Government; it is good that we got the statement on the future unified Ireland as a possibility. If I correctly understand what the Taoiseach said, it is good that we will get many of the issues of Irish interest agreed in advance of the wider negotiations starting. However, we should think broader and beyond that, and have a calming role within the Union saying, "Let us not just run away with this here." We should play our cards strongly and stick to the principles, but be careful in doing that, that we are not seen as bullies and using the power imbalance that exists. We need to work in collaboration on what Europe is about, including protecting environmental standards.

I agree with what the leader of the Labour Party said earlier. The Taoiseach cited many market gains we get from Europe. We get social policy and environmental policy from Europe. We get standards on market regulation. We actually challenge the market in Europe; it has been too much of a market-led project. We need to stand up for those values in a collaborative way with the UK, to encourage it to stick with environmental regulation and social policy. We should get those into the negotiations earlier, rather than just presenting a bill for €60 billion and sorting out the Clones Border issue. Otherwise it will crash out leaving us in deep trouble. The "what else" here is the problem. We need to avoid the risk of a crash. That is why it is in our strategic interest to maintain friendship, keep working collaboratively and stand up for that tradition in the European Union, which is what we need to maintain.

See this speech in context