Joan Collins (Dublin South Central, Independent) | Oireachtas source

Some two or three weeks ago, the Minister for Finance, Deputy Michael Noonan, gave a short interview on television at a meeting of EU Finance Ministers. He was remarkably sanguine about the prospects of Brexit. He stated that, in his view, there would be a transitional period. He implied that most of the existing arrangements between the UK and the EU and the UK and Ireland would remain in place during this transitional period. In other words, he said there was nothing much to get excited about. If this reflects in any way the attitude of the Government, it is heading for a rude awakening. We only have to consider the remarks of Michael Howard, who raised the spectre of war with Spain over Gibraltar, to see the reality of the situation. Michael Howard cannot be dismissed as a voice from the lunatic fringe, even though some people might think he is. He is a former leader of the Tory Party who has influence and authority over the Tory extreme right, those who are driving the agenda on Brexit. These people live in a fantasy land of their own creation. They have convinced themselves that once they have thrown off the shackles of the EU, all of the glories of the empire will magically reappear. It is a case of hard Brexit or no deal. It is highly likely that these people, along with their supporters in the UK right-wing media, have an effective veto over the hapless Theresa May.

As to who else might have a veto on the Brexit negotiations on a new relationship and trade deal between the UK and the 27 member states it is, to be honest, anybody's guess. Spain may have a veto on Gibraltar. If it does, it will use it. Anyone who thinks this is not a problem for the exit negotiations is not living in the real world. The 27 individual member states do not have a veto on the Brexit negotiations but if the negotiations involve elements of a post-Brexit relationship, individual states will possibly have a veto. The European Parliament has a monitoring role in the negotiations. If it decided that sufficient progress was not being made on the early issues in the negotiations, such as the rights of EU citizens in the UK up to 2019 or agreement on the amount the UK pays to leave, it can prevent negotiations moving to the next level. Is this a veto?

This points to a situation in which a soft Brexit is the least likely scenario. The special situation of Ireland in Clause 11 of the EU negotiation guidelines will have about as much weight as Angela Merkel's statement that Ireland was a special case in the context of the bailout of the EU banking system, and look where that got us. The situation is not good - some people think it is verging on very bad. We should be prepared for the worst, something to which other Deputies have referred. We need to think about what will happen if Europe does or does not remain in place.

For working people throughout Europe, neither remaining in a European Union dominated by neoliberalism or living outside it in a right-wing nationalist pipedream can solve the problems they face, health, jobs, education, social welfare, housing and all of the other issues faced by ordinary people in the past eight years of austerity. There is a need for an alternative, and the alternative will become clearer over time. Unless Europe puts money into the areas that directly affect people's lives such as living standards, jobs and other things, we face a potential rise of the right and the continuation of neoliberalism, which is the cause of the rise of the right.

There is a need to build a new left to fight for a new Europe, which is genuinely based on solidarity and co-operation between the peoples of Europe and which puts the interests of the citizens before those of big business. If we do not do that, the outcome for Europe or America will not be good. People will struggle and fight back against what they see as inequality.

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