Jim O'Callaghan (Dublin Bay South, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I am sharing my time with Deputy James Browne. A former leader of my party frequently referred to economics as a dismal science. That comment may have been unfair to economists but it reflects accurately the relationship that sometimes exists between politics and economics. Economics is a science. It is based on a close study of previous economic development and an appraisal of vast amounts of economic data. In many respects, economists are like meteorologists. Their job is to warn of dangerous climate changes that lie ahead and how any turbulence should be avoided. Some are overly cautious but in general when economists speak they should be listened to by politicians.

Politics is not a science. It ebbs and flows depending on the public mood and perceptions about the immediate past and the short-term future. Politicians in general will seek to follow the direction of least resistance, what looks like the clearest, least problematic path. A lot of times they make it and get through but sometimes they get caught, as happened with world economies back in 2008. The Irish economy is progressing and recovering after the traumatic events caused by the global crisis of 2008. Although politicians can be legitimately blamed for contributing to that crisis, they also deserve credit for identifying the painful path out of that crisis. The people of this country and the political system deserve credit for being able to steer the country through what was an economic hurricane.

We are now sailing in calmer yet unpredictable waters and the budget needs to be viewed in that context. Unfortunately, just as we have come through one storm there is, on the horizon, an equally dangerous storm which will pass directly over Ireland in the near future. That is the storm called "Brexit". Unfortunately, our budget was completely inadequate to deal with the threat posed to this country by Brexit. The Leas-Cheann Comhairle, as a Deputy for a Border county, will know that the Border counties are particularly vulnerable to the threat from Brexit but so is the island of Ireland. The decision of the British Government to have a referendum on leaving the European Union will probably go down as one of the worst foreign policy decisions of a British Government since the Munich agreement of 1938. A Prime Minister who was in favour of remaining in the European Union was reckless in allowing that referendum to take place at a time when there was an unprecedented refugee crisis in Europe and a growing feeling of anti-EU sentiment throughout the Union.

The vote in Britain was predominantly a vote about immigration. It was an opportunity for those who have been let down by the British political system to blame an entity that was presented as being the cause of their problems. That was unfair and wrong. The European Union has done more to improve the working conditions of British workers than any other entity and the biggest failure of the British Labour Party over the past number of years was its failure to communicate that message to the electorate of Britain prior to the referendum. Nonetheless, the vote in Britain is a milestone in British history. I may be wrong but I suspect that, ultimately, the people of Britain will come to regret their decision. Unfortunately, Britain is now being guided through this enormous crisis by very inexperienced politicians whose compasses are set not to the interests of the British people but to emotion and English nationalism.

The history of this island has been dominated for many centuries by our relationship with the larger neighbouring island. That changed with our membership of the European Union and the increase in this country's wealth that really took off in the 1990s. Unfortunately, because of the short-sightedness of a British Administration, we will suffer again. Although we have been liberated from domination in our relationship with the neighbouring island, that will change again because of Brexit. Brexit means that the progress of this country over the next ten years will be defined, if not determined, by what happens on the neighbouring island. We need to recognise and re-emphasise that Ireland's future rests with membership of the European Union and not with our large neighbouring island.

The level of preparedness for Brexit in Britain is abysmal. We are told that Brexit means Brexit but that means nothing. They do not know in Britain where this journey will lead, nor where it will end. In this country we are also grossly unprepared and the budget announced last week was disappointing. It failed to recognise the biggest threat posed to this country as a result of the decision made next door. We need to make decisions to ensure we are protected against the ramifications of Brexit.

We need to identify what we as a country require the negotiators from the European Union to seek on our behalf when they come to negotiate with Britain after March of next year. We need the European Commission negotiators to recognise that this country has a unique position because of the Border on this island. Therefore, the first thing the Government needs to do is to have a plan for the purpose of influencing the European Commission in respect of its negotiations with Britain which will commence at some stage in the middle of next year.

We also need to recognise that Brexit not only will have economic consequences for this country, but has constitutional consequences also. In 1998, the vast majority of people of this country, and, indeed, on this island, voted to amend Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution for the purpose of giving effect to the Good Friday Agreement. It is sometimes forgotten that the Good Friday Agreement involved two agreements. It involved a multi-party agreement between the parties in Northern Ireland. It also involved an agreement between the two sovereign states, between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. That treaty is registered as an international treaty in the United Nations. We agreed to amend Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution. In return, the British state agreed that it would change its legal system so that the European Convention on Human Rights would be incorporated into British law. They did that by introducing the Human Rights Act 1998 into domestic British law. We are now told that the British Government intends to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998 as it operates in Northern Ireland. It will be replaced with some ambiguous unknown British bill of rights. That was not what we agreed to when we voted to amend Articles 2 and 3. That was not what the State agreed to when we entered into an international treaty, registered in the United Nations, with the United Kingdom. Unfortunately, no one in the Government is emphasising to the British Government that it will be in breach of its international obligations. For instance, there was a court case in Belfast recently when a lot of interested parties were joined as notice parties for the purpose of giving their views on the Brexit decision. Why was the Irish State not represented as a notice party in those proceedings where we could have given our assessment as to what was required based on the Good Friday Agreement?

I suppose the vote in Northern Ireland was also of particular interest because for the first time, many Unionists recognised that their interests were best served not by being part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain but by being part of a federal European system. That is a significant change. It is a change that needs to be carefully nourished. It does not require knee-jerk reactions seeking people to call for a Border poll so that people can revert to traditional sectarian positions. In Scotland, there is likely to be a vote in the near future on whether or not Scotland will remove itself from the Union.

We have seen a devaluation of the pound by 20% against the euro. This is placing a significant burden on Irish exporters and manufacturers. It will have a negative impact on British tourists travelling to Ireland. We need to have a plan for those sectors. Unfortunately, that is where the budget has failed. It has not put forward any plan for how this country will deal with the serious problem which will arise when the Brexit negotiations commence.

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