Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I welcome the opportunity to contribute briefly to the debate on Brexit. I am deeply concerned about the impact last Thursday's decision in the UK may have on the Irish economy. It goes without saying the Minister and the Government have the full support of Fianna Fáil in managing the fallout from the referendum. We will do anything we can in this respect.

The only certainty we have following Thursday's decision is there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty. This we can take as being for sure. The Minister, the Taoiseach and every other member of Government needs to realise, as I am sure they do, that Brexit and its implications for Ireland will be the dominant issue during the Government's term of office. There is no question about this. Serious economists are predicting the UK will now enter a period of recession and we would be very naive to believe that such a scenario would not have serious implications for Ireland and our economic prospects. The uncertainty into which we are now entering will be bad for business, investment and consumer confidence. There will be opportunities for Ireland and we should unashamedly pursue them. I expect the Government and the State agencies will do this. Overall, the decision last week represents a massive negative for Ireland which is unquantifiable at this stage.

I do not see a new arrangement being agreed between the European Union and the UK within a period of two years. To untangle the full complexity of the UK's relationship with the European Union in all facets is very unlikely to be concluded within two years. An extension of this two-year period requires a unanimous decision by the remaining 27 countries of the European Union. As we all know, it is difficult to get 27 countries to agree to anything, so the prospect of a sudden exit following a period of prolonged negotiations where no agreement is reached at their conclusion is a possibility and we need to be aware of this.

We also need to acknowledge that when it comes to the negotiations, which I hope will reach a successful conclusion, Ireland does not have a veto on the agreement. The agreement will be decided upon by way of qualified majority vote. We need to be very conscious of this issue. The Taoiseach and all Ministers need to realise the forthcoming negotiations on the UK's exit from the European Union and the implications for Ireland will be the toughest set of negotiations the country has ever entered into bar, perhaps, the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. This is how serious this is and how serious the process we are about to enter as a country and as one of 27 remaining countries in the European Union will be. The Taoiseach will have to have this front and centre on his agenda for his remaining tenure. In a sense, he is on his final lap in his political career and there is an opportunity for him to flex his muscles and represent Ireland to the very best of his ability over whatever is left in his period in office.

The idea the remaining countries in the European Union would simply allow the UK to have unfettered access to the European Single Market while at the same time allowing the UK to restrict access to that country for members of the European Union is naive. These negotiations will be quite brutal and quite tough, and every country in the European Union will have its own particular stamp on them and will have its own vested interests which it will seek to pursue. For Ireland it is not just about free trade or common travel. Irish people travelling to the UK must have the right to take up employment and work. Thousands of people are doing this. It is not just about travel. It is travel allied to the right to work in the jurisdiction and the issue of free trade.

The Acting Chairman, Deputy Breathnach, is well aware of the implications for our relationship with Northern Ireland from a trade and economic point of view. We have had a 9% shift in the value of sterling with regard to the euro. It went from approximately 76p to 83p, which has an immediate impact on the dynamic of cross-Border trade with regard to footfall and the ability to export not only to the Six Counties but to England, Wales and Scotland. This issue must be borne in mind.

The ISEQ index has decreased by approximately 14% since close of play on Thursday. It has decreased by approximately €16 billion. We will not live and die by the markets, but what happens on the markets affect real people's pensions, savings and investments and we all need to be very conscious of the importance of what is happening.

We commit our support on this side of the House but make no mistake about it, managing the fallout from this and minimising the impact on Ireland must be the single greatest priority for the Government and everything it does for however long it is in office.

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