John Paul Phelan (Carlow-Kilkenny, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

It is difficult to know where to start in this debate about what happened last week because there was a sense among most analysts and pundits, as well as politicians across these islands and further afield, that the British people would do what was perceived to be the right thing in the end. They did not, however. There was some evidence from the markets and other sources that the result might have been different. It was clear, however, from when the first results came in from Newcastle and Sunderland that the exit side of the argument was going to win the referendum campaign when the count was finally completed in the early hours of Friday morning.

It is also apparent since that night that no real effort was put in on the part of the exit campaign as to what would happen if it were victorious. This begs the question of many of those exit campaigners involved on the British Government side if they wanted a successful outcome at all. There has been little by way of evidence that they have any strategy as to how matters may progress from here.

There are several possible outcomes. One which has been floated, and one which we would be familiar on the side of the Irish Sea, is that there might be a second referendum. The second, which is more likely, is that a political stalemate will ensue for some time. The outgoing British Prime Minister has indicated he will not activate Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union for the next few months, while other heads of European institutions, as well as European Heads of State and the European Union, have indicated they wish the process to begin quickly.

It cannot begin quickly, however, because of the unique constitutional position in the UK, whereby agreement has to be garnered from the Parliaments in Scotland and Northern Ireland. There the results of the referendum were very different from the results in England and Wales. What we have seen emerge is a strange coalition between communities in England, in particular, which would be viewed as being disaffected, having suffered significantly and economically since the late 1980s and the early 1990s, and a group of people, who could be best described as little Englanders and who have a nostalgic view of the days of empire and Britain's place in the world, which does not seem to have changed much over the past 200 years. Like many Members, I have family and friends living across the United Kingdom. It is worth pointing out there was an undercurrent of racial tension in much of the exit campaign, which has not been mentioned much. It was a factor which seemed to have a significant impact on how many people voted.

It was also interesting that, in the immediate aftermath of the referendum itself, a significant number of people expressed the view that they did not believe that exit would win and their vote would not count. This is a relic of the fact that the British system has many safe parliamentary seats where votes do not tend to count. However, in a referendum campaign, as we know in this country, every vote is counted.

We need to ensure from an Irish perspective that we act in our own national interest. My lifetime has largely coincided with Britain's and our membership of the European Union. That membership has ensured that our utter economic dependence on the United Kingdom, until we joined the European Union, has been broken. That is not to say we should cut off her nose to spite our face just because the British appear to have done so last week. We have significant businesses, as well as businesses of all sizes, which depend on the British market for exports. It is imperative this market be kept open.

Ireland also has the issue of having a land border with the UK and the impact of this referendum on that remains unclear. I was struck yesterday as I watched the European championship match by a tweet of the Daniel Patrick Moynihan quote in which he famously said, “To be Irish is to know that in the end the world will break your heart.” I suppose to be Irish is to know that, in the end, the British will quite often break one's heart. It seems nothing much has changed in that regard.

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