Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The immediate foreseeable effect would be the effect on the movements of money in the markets. In that context, I have had discussions with the Governor of the Central Bank and he has assured me that the Central Bank, in the context of discussions with the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, has all the necessary measures in place to deal with any contingency of that nature. Beyond that, the legal mechanism for a British withdrawal is enshrined in the treaties. There is a two-year period before the withdrawal, if that were the outcome of the vote, would be activated, so issues like the free movement of people, whether there would be trade barriers or if there would have to be posts to secure the land border with Europe, as it would be then, 60 km from Dublin, would be discussed over a two-year period.

The negotiations, on the face of it, would be between the European Union and the United Kingdom and it would be the European Union that would be doing the negotiation, but if one takes an issue like the free movement of people, that has been in place as a legal issue since 1922. It was reinforced legally when the Republic was established in 1949 and since it pre-dated the entry of the UK and Ireland into the European Union, I would be of the view that there is a strong legal argument that the status quo ante could prevail.

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