Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

Thank you, Deputy.

On 18 February, EU Heads of State and Government paved the way for the UK referendum date to be set following their agreement of a "New Settlement for the UK in the EU". In this, we successfully addressed many of the issues of concern to the UK, and reached an agreement which was acceptable to all EU partners and which allowed Prime Minister Cameron to launch his campaign for the UK to remain within the Union.

Given the major importance for us of keeping the UK in the EU, I was active in those negotiations. I sought to be constructive and supportive, and Ireland’s role in securing a positive outcome at the European Council has been widely recognised. As I reported to the House last month, agreement was reached across four principal areas: economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty, and social benefits. Having participated fully in the agreement, we have now entered the critical pre-referendum phase of this debate. The UK electoral commission has formally designated the remain and leave campaigns, and the referendum campaign has, as of Friday last, formally begun.

In the run-up to the referendum, we will continue to articulate our views on these truly significant issues as an interested friend and as a neighbour. Let nobody underestimate the scale of the challenge here. Irish citizens living in the UK will have a vote. Voters in Northern Ireland are estimated to be about 1.2 million. Around 120,000 UK citizens living here are also entitled to vote. The British embassy in Ireland is targeting them with a view to ensuring that they are registered to vote. While fully recognising that the outcome of the referendum is entirely a matter for the UK electorate, we will continue to ensure that the Irish perspective is presented to all interested parties. We support calls encouraging those eligible to register, to vote and inform themselves on this crucial issue.

I urge all Members of this House to use their connections and influence to reinforce the case. This is a matter on which we should be united. I also hope that people in Ireland will reach out to family, friends and business colleagues in Britain. Briefing information will be made available by the Department to Members of the House who require it. I hope that voters in the referendum, including the Irish in Britain and the people of Northern Ireland, will be aware of and understand our close economic ties, the importance of the EU to the development of Northern Ireland, and the importance of the EU partnership between Ireland and Britain. This is also a critical time in deepening our understanding of the many implications for Ireland if the UK were to vote to leave the European Union and the uncertainties that could arise for key areas of our relationship.

In this pre-referendum phase, the work already carried out by Departments is being further developed to deepen our understanding and analysis of the potential impacts in the key areas of concern that I have outlined. Through all Departments, we are ensuring that a whole-of-government approach is taken to this vital work. Those sectors of concern cover trade, market volatility, migration, social welfare, public services, energy markets, the peace process, foreign direct investment, financial investment and services, and so on.

The next phase will commence once the result of the referendum is concluded. The direction that this takes will depend on that result, but let me consider what will happen in the event of a vote to leave. Mr. David Cameron has made it clear that this is a once-only deal for the UK. If they decide to vote to leave the EU, a period of two years is provided for under Article 50 of the EU treaties, during which the exit terms of a member state would be negotiated.

Although negotiations could well take significantly longer, any extension would need to be agreed unanimously by the remaining 27 EU member states.

If the UK was to vote to leave the EU, a number of very different scenarios could be envisaged. The Government will continue to plan for any contingencies so that we are prepared to deal with the potential consequences in the event of a UK vote to leave but we need to be realistic about how far we would be able to pursue bilateral negotiations with the UK. A future EU-UK agreement would set the overall framework and determine future arrangements in very many sectors. We would have to deploy all our political, official and diplomatic resources in a negotiation which, in many ways, could be as important as our EEC accession negotiations so many years ago.

It is worth noting that there is already a clear framework in place for bilateral co-operation between the Irish and UK Governments under the joint statement which I signed with the Prime Minister in 2012. We review progress at our regular summit meetings. This provides a framework for co-operation on a joint Ireland-UK work programme covering issues such as the common travel area, energy and climate change, economic and financial issues and trade and investment. As part of this, Departments meet regularly with their UK counterparts and annual plenary meetings take place between Secretaries General of Departments and UK permanent secretaries to progress the key areas I have mentioned. Such bilateral engagement will continue regardless of the outcome of the UK referendum but will take on added importance in the event of a leave vote.

In the event of a vote for the UK to remain in the EU, the agreement reached in February would take effect. This means that the agreed measures relating to economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty, and freedom of movement would be effective immediately. Those measures on social benefits and addressing the abuse of free movement would be implemented by amending or complementing existing EU regulations. While they would be taken forward quickly, they would, therefore, not take effect immediately after the referendum.

Two social welfare changes could be implemented as part of the EU agreement. First, child benefit for the children of EU nationals working in the UK could, after a period of four years, be index-linked to reflect conditions in the country where the child lives. Second, access to "in-work" benefits could be limited for four years for people newly entering the UK labour market. This would not apply to any EU citizen already residing in the UK. The Government has raised with its UK counterpart - at both political and official level - the possible implications of these measures for Irish people in the UK. I have spoken to David Cameron on a number of occasions. The British Government is fully aware of our concerns and of the unique status of the Irish community in Great Britain over very many years.

As necessary, we will continue these discussions where we will continue to actively pursue the best interests of Irish people living in or moving to the UK. I recall that , during post-European Council statements on 22 March, Deputy Martin raised the potential implications of the proposed social welfare changes for Irish citizens in the UK. I propose to circulate a paper early next week addressing this issue. This would also respond to other specific points which will be raised by Deputies today and which are not fully dealt with in this speech.

During the course of the next nine weeks, we will see an intensification of the EU-UK debate as the "Remain" and "Leave" campaigns in the UK battle for the hearts and minds of the electorate. We cannot, and will not, tell the people of the UK how to vote but it is vitally important that we continue to clearly articulate our views on this issue - to set out what is at stake for this country and to clearly and unequivocally state our support for the UK remaining in the EU. Of course, it is our sincere hope that on 24 June, we will be welcoming a vote for the UK to remain. If that is not what the people of the UK decide, we will be as prepared as it is possible to be to manage the consequences and deal with the uncertainties that arise. There is one thing of which I have no doubt, namely, that we will continue to work unstintingly to maintain a strong, positive and productive relationship with the UK whatever future course is determined by its people on 23 June.

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