Ciarán Cannon (Galway East, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The Minister and the officials in the school building unit in preparing to publish the five year capital programme in 2011 carried out considerable and forensic analysis of that likely demographic challenge and where the numbers would create the most pressure in terms of school accommodation. In certain communities that bubble or pressure was occurring at primary level and we have responded to that by putting in place plans to construct primary schools in those areas. In other areas the demographic bubble had moved on to post-primary and again we have responded to that by providing for the construction of schools in those areas between 2011 and 2016. As we come towards the end of that five year period we will carry out a similar analysis to address the next period, one would assume, from 2016 onwards and I understand much of that demographic analysis is under way.

With the very limited resources available to the Department for school construction, the first challenge for Dublin 1, 3, 7 and 9 would be to establish that there is demand for a post-primary school over and above the existing provision. Once that has been established, one would expect the issue of patronage would arise and, as requests for changes in patronage have dictated, there would be a survey of parents in the area to determine the likely patronage of such a school.

My assessment of the response before me would be that we would not decide on the patronage without establishing an actual demographic need for a new post-primary school to service the area driven by population increase. As the Deputy might concede, there are some parts of Dublin city where we are seeing either a levelling off or a reduction of population in some areas. Whether the demographic need would arise for a new post-primary school in the area remains questionable.

The Deputy's other suggestion is that we might divest the patronage of one school in the locality to another patron. He might appreciate the challenges that might arise in such a scenario. At this point, I concede there is a degree of uncertainty over the development of a post-primary school in Dublin 1, 3, 7 or 9. We will certainly continue to engage with community representatives in the area, including the Deputy, and work as best we can to ensure, if and when that demographic challenge arises, we are ready and willing to meet that challenge in terms of school construction. We are also more than willing to engage actively with the community to determine the patronage of such a school.

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