Dáil debates

Wednesday, 23 January 2013

Euro Area Loan Facility (Amendment) Bill 2013: Second Stage (Resumed)

 

1:20 pm

Photo of Olivia MitchellOlivia Mitchell (Dublin South, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I welcome the opportunity to speak on this Bill which is important for all of us in Europe. I looked at what I stated last March when we agreed the previous bailout for Greece. I stated then I did not have great confidence it would be a long-term solution when one looked at Greece's eye-watering debt to GDP ratio. I suppose I should not claim any great level of insight for coming to this conclusion because I do not think any observers at the time had great expectations of the package. Nevertheless, it did settle the markets for a number of months, but it was only temporary and what followed in the summer and in the months running up to the deal prior to Christmas looked to many observers as a doomsday scenario with the euro tumbling, and great concerns about the future existence not only of Greece in the euro but of the euro itself. This uncertainty continued until the new deal was agreed. This is the deal we are now confirming in legislation, albeit some months later.

The deal was very much bolstered, was made acceptable and did the job because of statements by EU leaders that whatever was required to save the euro would be done and would be forthcoming. This commitment was underpinned and demonstrated by the EU doing what it had stated in previous years it would never do, which was to offer debt relief and retrospectively reduce interest rates. It was this unequivocal commitment to underpin the euro which had immediate and dramatic results. The euro has recovered and is still recovering in value. The interest has fallen on EU bonds and continues to fall. The biggest winner of all, amazingly, is Spain which has managed to avoid a bailout simply on the promise there would be one if it needed it. Its bonds are now being underwritten and viewed in the markets as being as solid as German bonds because they are underwritten by this promise. The bonds are virtually risk-free. As an Irish person I am a bit miffed this deal was available, and I believe we all are miffed that the later deals were better.

These developments which reflect the current approach in Europe to indebted countries, such as the debt relief for Greece, the extension of debt maturity and the restrictive reduction in interest rates, together with the huge confidence boost to the markets of a promise to support the euro at all costs highlight the disadvantage Ireland suffered by being an early mover and being the country which went for a bailout very early on. To the extent we know what happened we did not go for a bailout; we were bounced precipitously into a very onerous bailout to protect the euro. Highlighting the different treatment of the troubled eurozone countries strengthens our hand in negotiating a better deal and pleading our case in a rational way and in a reasonable manner, while at the same time trying to do what we can at home to ensure we put our own finances in order.

These negotiations are beginning, and I completely accept it is tortuously slow, to bear fruit. I refer particularly to the crucial decision of the Eurogroup on Monday to examine the extension of debt maturities for Ireland and Portugal arising from loans from the EFSF. The ECOFIN meeting is reporting a similar commitment as far as the EFSM is concerned. These developments come on top of the €9 billion in cost savings to us as a result of interest rate reductions which we negotiated in 2011.

The promissory note is an outstanding problem but we are now assured there is some improvement in this mechanism in the offing, although we do not yet know the nature or extent of the better terms we will achieve. Apart from the burden of other debt, the €3.1 billion annually required to fund this is an intolerable burden and it is a completely unjustifiable burden to place on the shoulders of the Irish taxpayer. Any change must be welcome and is long overdue. I know the Government is fighting tooth and nail for the best possible deal for taxpayers.

We also have other battles to fight, such as that for sovereign responsibility for bank debt. Perhaps we have greater grounds for optimism in this regard. We have had other good news in recent times, for instance earlier this week a report from Morgan McKinley showed an increase in the number of professional job vacancies being advertised. We know the IDA has had its best year in a decade in attracting jobs to the country. I am very cautious about speaking about green shoots. I would not dare do so because we know from the experience of the previous Government that to do so prematurely and then subsequently see every possible economic indicator moving in the wrong direction is hugely demoralising for people and is counter-productive. I certainly will not speak about green shoots. However, after almost five years of bad news, when every indicator was going the wrong way and when the outcome of every situation was worse than we ever anticipated or forecast, at last when we get good positive news, however modest it may be, and have a series of positive developments as we have had in recent months we should welcome them and at least acknowledge them and be encouraged. There is nothing wrong with being encouraged by good news; even if it does not fit into our scenario of how the world works and what we would like to see happening we must be positive.

It will take a long time for these positive developments to be felt at an individual level by people who have lost all their savings, assets, shares and jobs. It will take time to translate into a positive impact on every individual. It will also take time for domestic demand to take off. This is when we will begin to see jobs being created in the Irish economy. It is absolutely essential for job creation. With these changes on the macro front we will get growth and confidence. This is how we will see recovery. The only way recovery can happen is through increased confidence in the bond markets, IDA successes, debt reduction deals with the EU and the good figures we hear with regard to export growth. This is what will feed down and into every constituency in the country with regard to jobs. This is why I was very taken aback when I heard Deputy Donnelly yesterday on "Morning Ireland". He made very negative remarks in respect of the Eurogroup's commitment to look at the extension of bond maturities. Apart from the fact he was completely wrong in what he stated in suggesting the bulk of money we are borrowing will pay for the banks, what is worse is that he knows it is wrong. He is not a fool and knows exactly what the money we are borrowing is for.

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