Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)

The latest set of forecasts was published this week by the OECD, which said that the world is working its way out of recession. It named some of the bigger economies that are doing well. It also said its estimate of growth in Ireland for 2012 is 0.6%, and 2% for 2013. That is actual growth, not nominal growth. One must put inflation on top of that when one looks at the figure on which the budget is based. The Deputy can talk about being bamboozled with facts, but that is the latest forecast. The OECD might be right or wrong because forecasts are very inexact as circumstances change. All we are giving is the best possible information. On the basis of the best information I have, we will be on target at the end of the year on this budget, and will be below the target of €8.6 billion in the deficit. We will have to make a correction next year to get below €7.5 billion. If there is 2% growth in real terms it will be quite helpful in forming next year's budget. That is not to say that it will not be tough. I appreciate the stress it puts families under but there is no point in trying to undermine the basis of the figures. I am trying to explain to the Deputy how things will be constructed. It is difficult enough for people without exaggerating the difficulties.

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