Pearse Doherty (Donegal South West, Sinn Fein)

I agree with the Minister regarding the difficulty in predicting the structural deficit for 2015 and beyond. A range of moveable factors will impact on the figures to improve them or make them worse. However, let us deal with the Department's best predictions based on the models and expertise available to it. Does he agree that the statement on the programme update issued by the Department in April indicated a structural deficit of 3.5% in 2015? That would leave a gap of 3% or €5.4 billion based on GDP. Setting aside our agreement regarding the difficulty of making projections, the Department's best attempt reveals a structural gap of €5.4 billion between the medium term objective of 0.5% and its projected figure of 3.5%

The IMF is the only organisation to project the structural deficit post-2015. Its country specific report, which was released earlier in the spring, indicated that the structural deficit in 2016 and 2017 would decrease marginally by 0.1% in the absence of further adjustments, even based on a growth rate of 4.9%. Does the Minister agree that further adjustments will be needed and, in meeting those adjustments and closing the gap, will he rule out additional tax increases or cuts?

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