Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)

I welcome the opportunity to make a contribution on Second Stage of this Bill to provide for a referendum on the European fiscal stability compact. If we needed a wake-up call for the Government and those of us who support the passage of the treaty, we got it with the opinion poll published by The Irish Times this morning. That indicated clearly that the outcome of the referendum hangs in the balance and it could go either way. The advantage is with the "Yes" side currently but that could change, depending on the type of campaign conducted by the "Yes" side, in particular, over the six weeks to polling day. Time is short and every day from now on must be used constructively by those of us advocating a "Yes" vote in the referendum to the people. As the leader of the "Yes" campaign, there is a particular onus on the Government to run a vigorous and vibrant effort over the next six weeks.

The most fascinating figure from today's poll is the statistic that almost four people from ten, or 39% of people, have not yet made up their mind, and such people may be convinced to vote either way. The "Yes" side currently leads that poll with 30% to the 23% of the "No" side, with 39% of people saying they do not yet know how they will vote. There is still an information deficit and although the treaty is relatively straightforward and accessible, the majority of people do not know what is involved. There is a great onus on the Government to ensure the necessary information is put out there in a clear, simple and understandable manner.

There were other interesting statistics concerning other issues in the poll. Some 66% of people believe Ireland is better as part of the EU, as opposed to 22% of people who disagree with our participation. There are three times as many people who believe Ireland should be part of the EU as people who do not share that view. This treaty is not about Ireland remaining in the European Union but we have been given an indication that people are favourably disposed to Europe and Ireland's ongoing involvement in all affairs at the European Union level. Further poll findings indicate that 59% of people are dissatisfied with the manner in which European leaders are running the EU, which means there are a number of conflicting forces in play. People are positively disposed to Europe and Ireland's engagement with the Union but people are not impressed with what they have seen at a European level, including the management of this crisis since 2008 and the series of crisis summits and meetings last year. They seemed to be endless, and night after night people looked at the news to see leaders going to Brussels for more crisis and emergency meetings. Nevertheless, the problem rumbled on and people lost faith in the institutions of the European Union and the political leadership because of a failure to grasp the seriousness of the crisis and to react in a decisive manner.

Additionally, the poll indicated that people do not believe the Irish Government's contention that we will not need a second bailout, as 58% of people stated that Ireland will need a second programme of assistance. In a way, that may work in the Government's favour as if people think that way, they will recognise the importance of having the backstop of the ESM fund available to Ireland. It is unquestionably one of the selling points for the "Yes" side and those looking to pass the treaty. Nevertheless, the starting point for the Government and those of us who believe in this treaty should be to accept that it will be a difficult sell. The Irish people are in a very hard place today and are really struggling. They are disillusioned with politics and many have lost faith with the current Government already because of the abandonment of many election promises, the handling of the household charge and the water charge debacle over recent weeks. They are now reading speculation about the roll-out of the property tax from 2013.

It is against such a backdrop that we must convince people that this is the correct course for Ireland and this treaty is worthy of support. It will be a difficult task but it can be achieved.

It all comes down to the campaign run. As with every election any of us has contested during the years, if one does not engage in a robust and vigorous campaign, meet people and explain where one is coming from, one will not be successful. The Government has an opportunity to make the referendum campaign its single priority for the six weeks before polling day. It must meet people as soon as possible to explain the benefits of the treaty and repeat what was done during the second referendum on the Lisbon treaty when civil society groups were invited to actively engage and support the campaign. I take my hat off to the Irish Farmers' Association which has already sent members an information leaflet summarising the treaty in simple and understandable terms. If we can persuade other groups to do likewise, the treaty stands a good chance of being successful. Given that many people are more inclined to listen to civic leaders than they are to political leaders, it is particularly important that we secure the support of civic society.

The European Union has received a great deal of bad publicity recently and, in Ireland's case, some of it has been justified. While this debate is not an appropriate one in which to dwell on the issue, people are especially annoyed about the intransigence shown by the European Central Bank on the issue of sharing the burden of bank related debt. Even in recent weeks, members of the board of the ECB have issued hardline statements on the promissory note arrangement. We have bought some time, perhaps a year, which gives us a window of opportunity to secure an overall deal. People are annoyed when they see the obvious unfairness in the manner in which Ireland has been treated on this issue.

The Fianna Fáil Party is genuinely committed to the treaty and I encourage the Government to involve us in the campaign in so far as possible. We will actively campaign in the referendum. Opinion polls have consistently shown that those who support Fianna Fáil are strongly pro-European, as was confirmed in an opinion poll published today. My party will play its part in ensuring there is a strong campaign on the "Yes" side. While we recognise that the Government has a leadership role in the referendum, we do not want to be sidelined.

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