Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Independent)

They cannot even measure the structural deficit. We are about to sign up to a serious treaty that requires compliance with a structural deficit target that no one can measure, which is crazy.

Compliance will lock in austerity. Various Deputies referred to not repeating the mistakes of the past. The point of the treaty is to lock in an austerity based approach from where we are now. The treaty is characterised by gunboat diplomacy and reminds me of the conversation we had about the bonds when we were told to pay the bondholders. We are being told to sign the treaty and, although it may not be in the interests of the country, the country will be destroyed if we fail to do so because we will be locked out of access to the European Stability Mechanism and the European Central Bank will withdraw its emergency liquidity assistance and collapse our banking system. This destroys the principle of solidarity on which the Europe of which I am proud to be part has been built. We have seen a dangerous trend in this direction in recent years.

Unfortunately, the threat to lock out access to the European Stability Mechanism is enshrined in the treaty. This is the only reason I can find to vote "Yes" and it is a powerful one. Notwithstanding assurances that we will not need access to the mechanism, having such access, even if we do not draw down funding, is very important. While there are many reasons to vote "No", I can find only one very powerful reason to vote "Yes". The Government has proffered a series of reasons for approving the treaty. Just a few hours ago in Baldoyle, the Taoiseach stated that ratification of the European Union fiscal stability treaty would represent an insurance policy against future mismanagement of the country's finances. He added that approval of the treaty would provide "a guarantee that no Government of the future will ever again run riot either with the people's fortunes or with the people's money." He continued, "I hope that business leaders and more particularly, those who work in businesses. . . will be able to say quite openly that they believe in what they do, they appreciate the work and the employment that these firms give and for that reason they want that to continue and will as a consequence vote 'Yes'." These are serious statements to make to citizens. The Minister of State, Deputy Brian Hayes, had an extraordinary article published in The Irish Times on Monday which echoed some of the sentiments expressed by the Taoiseach. In the article, he linked a "Yes" vote to continued troika and ECB funding of our banking system through the emergency liquidity assistance programme. These claims are not true and I encourage the Government to stop engaging in this type of scare-mongering.

The treaty will not stop us repeating the mistakes of the past, which were made during the bubble when Ireland was fully in compliance with the main provisions of the treaty. For the Taoiseach and various Deputies to argue that ratifying the treaty will avoid the mistakes of the past is untrue and they should not make such statements. They also argue that the treaty will create jobs, which is not the case. The treaty means we are forced into a programme of debt pay-down and a budget balancing mechanism. While we can argue about whether this is the correct approach, it most certainly means that money will not be available for a large-scale stimulus which would create jobs. While it is possible that a "No" vote could destroy even more jobs, the Government should stop making statements that the treaty will create new jobs. It is highly irresponsible to link approval of the treaty to troika and ECB funding and I ask members of the Government to stop engaging in this type of scare-mongering.

An argument is made that the treaty will improve stability. I do not believe it will improve stability for Ireland at this juncture. The analogy that comes to mind is a fit triathlete - the German economy - and someone who has just come out of intensive care - sadly, this is Ireland being told to run five miles per day, have a balanced diet, avoid ice cream and so forth. While requiring the triathlete to follow this advice may make sense, requiring a recovering patient who has just left intensive care to do so could kill him. Ireland will not be in a position in the next two or three years to comply with the rules of the treaty. As such, attempting to do so could lead to further instability because the economy is not growing as planned and jobs are not being created as we would wish. Ultimately, this will bring us to a bad place to which we do not want to go, namely, the possibility of engaging in a forced restructuring of sovereign debt, a scenario that would cause more instability than anything we have discussed in this debate.

I do not yet know how I will vote on the treaty. There are many reasons to vote "No" and one very important reason to vote "Yes". It is about finding the balance.

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