Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)

This is similar to a question taken earlier. I take it from the Minister's response that the revised forecasts have not yet been finalised. However, he has indicated clearly a number of times that a further downward revision is anticipated. Such a revision took place on budget day last December and another will take place at the end of April. However, the Minister also has indicated it will not affect directly the achievement of the fiscal targets in 2012. Nevertheless, the Minister must be concerned by the analysis carried out by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council on the impact of nominal GDP being 1% lower, between now and 2015, than the Department's projections to date. Nominal GDP being just 1% lower than what has been forecast is a highly possible scenario. In such circumstances, the debt to GDP ratio would reach 125% and continue to rise rather than moving on to a downward trajectory. The Minister must be concerned, not so much about the short-term impact in 2012 but rather with regard to the impact in later years in the context of realistic growth rates being achieved. He must also be concerned about the impact the latter will have on fiscal consolidation.

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