Catherine Murphy (Kildare North, Independent)

There is a real desire, right across Europe and in this country, for certainty and stability. That is understandable because there have been several years of near chaos. The word "bailout" tends to suggest something positive. If I was getting a bailout from someone, I would expect to feel better about it and that it would lead to something more sustainable. When one looks at the numbers, that is not what is happening here. The numbers are impossible. The people are reaching to turn off the television. They have stopped buying newspapers. They want to switch off from the bad news. However, we must look at the numbers, at what underpins what is being proposed and at the vision that might be behind it. What worries me is there is no hope in this for people in Greece and there is no group of people more dangerous than one which has nothing to lose. As I say, the numbers will tell us everything.

The current Greek sovereign debt is in the order of €325 billion. The agreement reached, which depends on buy-in by Thursday from those who hold Greek Government bonds, involves an acceptance of a 53% haircut. From bonds worth roughly €206 billion, the haircut will be approximately €100 billion. Theoretically, that is supposed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from 163% in 2011 to 120% by 2020, but that will only happen if there are other developments in the economy such as growth.

One positive aspect, if one is looking for positives in such an awful situation, is that there is an acceptance that the banks and the bondholders should accept a write-down. When the Minister for Finance, Deputy Noonan, dared suggest that when in some part of the United States, he was quickly rebuked by the European Central Bank, which stated that could not be done. If there is a positive in it, it is that it certainly shows that it can be done.

This will be put across as if it were positive because Greece can remain inside the eurozone, but I would ask the question, for how long? I looked at some of the numbers. If one puts them on a table, one can ask what this means. The population of Greece is approximately 10 million. They have roughly the same GDP as ourselves. Obviously, their debt is slightly different in that there is a bigger sovereign debt and less personal debt. However, when one starts looking at the numbers, they go right to 2026, when the last payment would be made. In 2021, for example, they must make the following quarterly payments: €2.3 billion, €2.6 billion, €2.6 billion and €2.6 billion. That is set out, right up to 2026. When one begins to realise the scale of this, given one was already at the point of cutting into bone, the figures are phenomenal. The timeframe does not allow for inflation to make the kind of dent that would be required.

Theoretically, this so-called bailout stops contagion in countries like Ireland, Italy and Portugal, and in practice it reduces the overall burden of debt on Greece. However, it must be asked what kind of a country there will be and what kind of a Europe this is. Where is the community method, the social solidarity or the Charter of Fundamental Rights? The only thing we seem to talk about when talking about Europe is the money markets. There is a huge population in Europe. When do we begin to talk about the people of Europe and the vision for the kind of Europe to which we want to belong? This has to be talked about in the context of how we lead countries to recovery. There must be hope, but hope is not a long-term emotion. It has to be within the sight of people because it is very dangerous not to have hope.

An astonishing level of debt servicing will go with this so-called bailout. It is clear that no longer can one country take on board the responsibility for the banking system. We have to get to a point where there is a united approach and where we get to some measure like eurobonds in order that countries are not exposed in the way many have been.

I go back to the question of the Lisbon treaty and this whole intergovernmental approach. Intergovernmentalism is not necessarily a bad thing but the particular approach taken here flies in the face of what was proposed in the Lisbon treaty, where it was suggested that, instead of the two or three strong countries dictating, it would be possible to have a consolidation of smaller countries that would together wield a power that would at least not expose them in the way this intergovernmentalism is exposing them. Obviously, that refers to the fiscal compact. This approach is very one dimensional. It refers only to the financial side of things whereas Europe was supposed to be about so much more than just the financial side.

Many left-wing parties bought into the European constitution through the Lisbon treaty because it had the European social charter, where civic, political and economic rights were afforded. They might as well forget about that. In that context, one would have to ask what exactly the project is here. There is a very definite politics underpinning it, and a very conservative, Christian democratic axis driving it, without reference to the weaker people within societies. It involves issues such as being able to afford schooling for children, supports for people who are sick and pensions for those who have gone past their working life. These are issues one would not expect to see in a modern society such as that of Greece.

The numbers tell us that we are looking here not at saving the euro or giving the kind of certainty we all would like. Instead, we are looking at postponing a problem and we are looking at conflict. If people are not given hope, there is nothing surer than there will be some sort of response. We have already seen some of that response but it is not the response I want to see. I want to see people saying we can work our way out of this situation. However, what is happening in regard to what is on the table for Greece will not be a solution that puts hope into the equation in anything like an acceptable timeframe. We are storing up terribly serious problems in a continent that knows what conflict is about, given two world wars have started from it. We had better keep our eye on the bigger picture, namely, why the European Union was founded in the first place. I have real fears about what is being proposed.

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