Clare Daly (Dublin North, Socialist Party)

People probably smiled as they listened to the Minister of State, Deputy Creighton, on the radio this morning. She said that jobs will be jeopardised if we do not vote "Yes". It is a clear case of history repeating itself, first as tragedy and then as farce. When we were voting on the Lisbon treaty, the same people told us we had to vote "Yes" for jobs. We now have a level of unemployment that is worse than anything we had previously. Having attempted to drag its heels and avoid the need for a referendum, the Government is now being forced to put this matter before the people. I am absolutely delighted that this vote will take place. I do not believe the Government spokespeople who are saying they are delighted. I do not think they are. They have every reason not to be. The people of this country will shortly have a huge opportunity to have a say on how we are being governed. We are already seeing the beginning of the outline of the debate. I do not doubt that those who enjoy scaremongering will threaten us that this is about the future of the euro and our participation in the EU. Even though all of that is not the case, it will be thrown in front of us.

This treaty, which requires to be passed by just 12 countries, was designed specifically to enable Ireland and other countries to make a stand without stopping it from going ahead. We have already heard the argument that investment will be jeopardised and jobs will be put at risk if we do not vote "Yes". The experience of previous referendum campaigns demonstrates that such suggestions are utter rubbish. The only other argument the Government has made is that if we do not agree to this measure, we will not be able to access funds in the future. The problem with that argument is that the Government is telling us we will not need any more funds because the loans we have at present are secured under the current arrangements. It claims that its strategy is working and that it will meet our future borrowing requirements by getting money from the bond markets. If that is the case, we have nothing to worry about, but we all know that is not true.

The issue of a second bailout will arise if the Government continues to pay Anglo Irish Bank bondholders and other bondholders. It is inevitable that another bailout will be guaranteed in such circumstances. This treaty enshrines the annual repayment of over €4 billion of principal debt repayments after 2014. It basically amounts to a legal requirement. That is in addition to approximately €8 billion in interest payments on foot of the speculation of bondholders, etc. In that context, the Tánaiste's suggestion yesterday that this will be a blow to "casino capitalism" is absolutely and utterly ironic. Equally, we totally reject the threat of exclusion from the European Stability Mechanism, which is publicly funded by all member states, including Ireland. This is an austerity treaty, plain and simple. I hope the Irish people vote to reject it.

One of the key components of this debate is the whole issue of the structural deficit. If we adopt this treaty, we will enshrine in law an absolute requirement to have a structural deficit of 0.5% of GDP. We all know that the Maastricht guidelines already provide for a deficit of 3% of GDP, with regard to the Government's general level of spending over revenue. The structural deficit requirement will be in addition to that. There is no real clarity on what the figure will be. If we look at the Department of Finance's figures in this respect, as Michael Taft of TASC has done, it is clear that if we accept the principle of introducing extra cuts and additional taxes amounting to €5.7 billion, in addition to the measures that are already in place, in budgetary terms we are talking about an increase of 66% in austerity measures. We can say that with certainty because the Government is already planning to introduce an €8.6 billion package of spending cuts and tax increases over the next three years. If this structural deficit provision is taken on board, another €6 billion will be added to that. When the Government is campaigning in advance of the referendum, I would like it to explain to the Irish people, who are already being bled dry, how we will pay for such continued austerity into the future. That is why we are saying this is an austerity treaty. There is no doubt that it enshrines austerity in law.

This treaty also removes basic democratic provisions from elected Parliaments. I never thought I would quote a Tory MEP, but I would like to refer to the synopsis of this treaty that was given by one of them:

At best it is a distraction from the real economic problems we face. The fiscal compact effectively renders socialist high-spending policies illegal. As a fiscal conservative I should be delighted. However, a nation's economic destiny should be determined by the people through a ballot box, not political elites in a room in Brussels.

That is exactly about robbing the Irish electorate of a right to control their own government and to have the policies they want.

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