Dáil debates

Wednesday, 1 February 2012

 

Economic Forecasting

10:30 am

Photo of Michael NoonanMichael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)

We will keep everything in mind, but we can control only that which is under our control. Many events are international and are outside our control. One must remember all the time that the budget is not built on real growth figures, but on growth plus inflation. The recent figures from the Central Statistics Office make a projection of an increase of 1.8% in the Consumer Price Index for next year. Therefore, if one adds 1.8% onto half of the budgetary growth figure of 1.3% we get 2.5%, and the budget is built on 2.5% growth in nominal terms.

I take the point made by Deputy Boyd Barrett. Obviously, there will be a reduction in economic activity and that runs counter to growth and job creation. However, in purely fiscal terms, even with half the growth rate on which the budget is built, taken with the latest figures from the CSO on the Consumer Price Index, we still have a nominal growth rate without taking into account any of the other factors I mentioned.

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