Shane Ross (Dublin South, Independent)

That is true because there was no vision. There was no idea of where we would be after two or three austerity budgets. What we do know is this: we know the budget deficit will be 3% of GDP and that we will still be in the eurozone, if the Minister gets his way. We also know - I agree with my friends on these benches on this point - that unemployment will still be at an unacceptable level. According to the Department of Finance's forecasts, it will be at the level of 12% in 2015. What does that say about the Government's jobs policy? It is hot air. Jobs will not be created by this budget, except in a tiny way. Everything being done in the budget and in other measures is peripheral. It makes a good impression. The impression the Minister gave today with this budget was very positive and very clever. All the good things were in front. Yesterday, the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, Deputy Howlin, produced a lot more of the negative things. When one actually examines them, the reality is that very few jobs will be created. The Department of Finance says that also, and its figures do not really take into account any flood of emigration which is almost certain to happen.

The vision we see here will include educational standards going down because of cuts in education and third level education not being open to everybody because of the measures introduced yesterday, but nevertheless the budget deficit will still be 3% of GDP and we will still be part of the euro. That really is an extraordinary aspiration. If the standard of living is to go down, unemployment is to go up and educational standards are to fall, we will still be able to say the budget deficit will be 3% of GDP.

I wonder whether it will be because one of the most significant things today - it was referred to by Deputy Pearse Doherty - was that the Minister very quietly demoted and reduced his predictions for growth next year. From being above 2% at one stage, it went down to 1.6% in October and to 1.3% today. That is a very high figure because the figure from the ESRI the other day was 0.9% and the figure from the OECD was 1%. The Department of Finance, for reasons which are difficult to explain, consistently produces optimistic figures on the growth side. That is obviously convenient if one is trying to sell and produce a budget of this sort but it means that somewhere down the line, in the next two or three budgets, the austerity will be greater again and greater than predicted.

This budget depends not only on growth rates which are much higher than this but on the continuing boom in exports. That is extraordinarily optimistic also. It is fair to say that the main outlets for our exports are either in recession or are heading for recession. The United Kingdom is undoubtedly heading for recession while the best prediction for the euro area is 0.3%. That is not a particularly optimistic outlet. Admittedly, the United States may expand in the next two years but the other main outlets for our exports are in recession. To hold out the prospect that somehow we as a nation will successfully and uniquely export to nations which are in recession is really living in economic cloud-cuckoo-land. That is the main difficulty with this budget. The growth figure is wildly optimistic and the export projections on which it is built are also wildly optimistic.

I do not believe we are heading for a situation in 2015 which the Minister could paint today. In reality, this budget takes us on a road to poverty, destitution and a standard of living which is unacceptable and which he could not spell out in his budget today because if he had done so, it would have been very difficult for the Labour Party backbenchers to accept.

There are measures which could have been taken. I do not wish to be negative but I do not understand what has happened to the apparent cull of the quangos. The rhetoric about the quangos before the election - I do not wish to score political points but this is very important - was extraordinarily strong, populist, realistic and practical. Does the Taoiseach remember the Fine Gael document, entitled Streamlining Government? I will not remind him of things which are embarrassing because I do not believe that is politics and it is not useful. However, it is useful to remind him of a few things in it. There was a determination and theme in it which talked about cutting costs. It talked about the 2,200 directors of quangos and about removing them. It also talked in fine rhetoric about Ireland having become the land of 1,000 quangos.

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