Dáil debates

Wednesday, 5 October 2011

Recent Developments in the Eurozone: Statements

 

6:00 pm

Photo of Micheál MartinMicheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)

Over the past seven months we have had a series of extremely limited debates on the eurozone crisis. We have heard repeatedly from the Government about how decisions just taken show that the Union will quickly overcome the crisis or, as we heard again today, how such decisions will happen soon. The fact is that the crisis stumbles on. Every time the leaders of the Union fail to take action which is both fast enough and large enough to tackle it, they end up making the crisis even worse.

It is two months since it became obvious that the Greek situation is threatening to engulf Europe. The contagion which forced Ireland and Portugal out of the bond market has not been contained and confidence has not recovered. Larger and more systemically important economies are now on the edge, with rising concern about bank capitalisation throughout the eurozone adding an extra layer of instability. In the face of this, the failure of Governments to agree any step forward at this week's ministerial meeting is the worst possible outcome. Their putting off of any decisions until the end of the month appears almost calculated to cause further damage.

Last December, leaders accepted that incremental and grudging actions had achieved nothing. They agreed to fundamentally change the terms of official support for countries. Principles were agreed in February but, when it came to turning principles into action, the Council failed. Implementation was put off for further discussions and things got worse. In turn new measures were agreed in July, which have been followed by delay and argument.

Time and again, leaders have reverted to trying to find an easy way out or have fallen back on pre-crisis demands for new powers that will never be given by either the member states or their citizens. The introduction of medium and long-term issues has directly led to delay and an increase in the urgency of the problems at hand. In all of this, the time and effort being put in by leaders, to push for action has been nowhere near what is required. The scale and pace of the budgetary adjustment being implemented by the Greek government is enormous. Its particular difficulties are being made significantly tougher because of the constraints of eurozone membership. The lack of devaluation or unilateral restructuring puts a major limit on Greece's ability to come out of the crisis. The attitude towards the Greeks that everything is their fault is disgraceful and ignorant. Europe is Greece's problem just as Greece is Europe's problem. Helping Greece is not charity but is a proper recognition of the duties of a currency union that freely admitted Greece as a member.

It is a complex situation but the key elements of what needs to be done are clear. There is no longer any time for delay. On the immediate issues, the funding available to achieve debt sustainability in current and potential bailout countries must be dramatically increased. The same goes for the funding available for bank recapitalisation. The ECB must be candidly told there is no alternative in this regard. As it stands proudly admiring its independence and its rigid adherence to increasingly discredited orthodoxies, it is causing immense damage. With the funding in place, Greece must be allowed to restructure its debt while selected bank debt here and potentially elsewhere must also be allowed to be restructured. The opposition of the ECB and some countries to burning bondholders was credible last year when Ireland proposed it. They were scared of the possibility for contagion and wanted to take a "safety first" approach. This is not credible any more, as markets have priced in restructuring and the failure of governments to implement it actually is making matters worse. Markets do not believe that a policy of no restructuring is credible and therefore doubt the credibility of the overall effort. Once these two critical short-term issues of a larger fund and debt restructuring are addressed, more complicated issues regarding the architecture of the eurozone can be considered. A reform of the European Central Bank is essential, as is more substantial control of national financial systems. Whatever is to be done will never be ratified if the current approach of exclusive negotiations and ultimatums is continued.

The Government's approach to these fundamental issues has so far been to stand back and wait for things to be agreed that it can pretend to have delivered. This is little different from its approach of claiming credit for the economic impact of a budget against which it voted. On 3 April, the Tánaiste announced the launching of a diplomatic initiative, which was due to involve him and the Taoiseach touring Europe to meet their counterparts in substantive bilateral meetings. Other than meeting on the margins of much larger gatherings, what has followed can be characterised as anything but an initiative. The Tánaiste told the House yesterday that his July meeting in Berlin was the only major bilateral meeting he has held and the Taoiseach has confirmed he has held none. The only communication of the Government's position has been through controlled leaks and briefings. The Taoiseach has stated he is against a new treaty but has not stated exactly what he himself seeks.

There also has been a speaking out of both sides of the mouth. The Minister, Deputy Noonan, went to Washington and said he was going to burn bondholders but returned home, continued to pay every red cent and said he would like to meet Mr. Trichet some time soon. Even though it is four and a half years away from an election, the Government continues to put political positioning ahead of everything. Last night the Government tabled a ridiculous amendment to Fianna Fáil's Private Members' motion in which it referred to its own "resolute action in facing the economic crisis". The same amendment of course distanced the Government from each specific action which would contribute to such "resolute action". Last night, one Minister told Members how the Government had skilfully negotiated a halving of Ireland's bailout interest rate in July. The facts show, however, that the Taoiseach, the Minister, Deputy Noonan, the Minister of State, Deputy Brian Hayes, and others confirmed that Ireland sought a much smaller reduction. Before the summit, the Taoiseach did his bit to further Ireland's negotiating position by neither meeting nor phoning any of the other participants.

Instead of spending time looking for things for which to claim credit, the Government should now set out in detail exactly what it is proposing. Does Ireland support a dramatic increase in bailout funding and if so by what means? Is Ireland supporting the restructuring of Greek debt? Is it insisting that a restructuring of certain classes of bank debt be allowed? Has Ireland responded to the Franco-German proposals for treaty changes? The leaders of Europe must start talking to one another and acting with the urgency the situation demands. If within the next few weeks there is a failure to both agree and start implementing a more significant series of initiatives, this could be the moment when the euro finally loses all credibility. This is a pan-European crisis that is becoming an international emergency. No purpose is served by countries stepping back and failing to commit to decisive action. It is time for the Government to state clearly what it is proposing and to actually launch the diplomatic initiative it has been talking about but failing to deliver for the last seven months.

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