Catherine Murphy (Kildare North, Independent)

Birth and death rates are the two primary figures used to arrive at population levels between census years. We have been experiencing a baby boom which, judging by reports from maternity hospitals, appears to be continuing. One issue that must also be factored in is emigration. It is a younger cohort of people who emigrate. We have had a history of emigration so there are things we can assume from previous waves of emigration in the 1950s and the 1980s. After a certain number of years people do not come back. Essentially, that has an impact on our demographics as well. The reason people emigrated in the past is the reason they are emigrating now, namely, a lack of opportunity. According to the Minister, demographics underlie the dynamic that is driving the Bill in terms of the ratio of people at work paying for people who are on a pension. If a large number of people emigrate because we are not creating jobs and we are retaining people in the workforce for longer, we are not assisting that demographic. I do not believe that has been factored into the Minister's calculations.

There is a different cost for welfare for people at a younger age, for example, because there are child dependents and possibly mortgage interest supplement. It is more expensive at that point. I do not know whether calculations have been made of the average cost for particular age segments of the population which could provide information in that regard. It would probably be less expensive to pay someone on a pension than it would be to pay welfare to someone in his or her 30s with a couple of kids and a mortgage. That issue must be examined before an initiative such as this is considered. My primary point is that it should be considered on a voluntary basis.

I fully accept that there is a pension time bomb. A whole raft of things must be done to address that. It is not exclusively about looking at the State pension but about how people contribute towards a pension over their lifetime. It will be the next big explosion unless it is addressed in a comprehensive way. This measure is a piecemeal way of approaching it, without considering other measures. There is a world of difference between someone who is doing manual work and someone doing non-manual work when one reaches the age of retirement. Sometimes the body just gives up before that. It is all very well to say people are healthier and living longer but that does not apply universally. I do not believe that has been taken into consideration. Far too many questions have not been answered for us to take such a significant step as proposed in the section.

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