Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)

I have provided in great detail the elements comprising the totals. The Deputy can run the numbers himself. In reply to Deputy Michael McGrath, I stated I was giving the most prudent assessment of where we will be by the middle of 2013. I could outline a more benign scenario. For example, we have suggested €20 billion for bank recapitalisation but the actual amount may be less, given the variables. On the growth side, all forecasting agencies agree we will return to significiant growth next year. While the OECD predicted no growth in 2011, it predicted growth of 2.3% in 2012. All the agencies predict growth of between 2% and 3% in 2012 and most predict growth of between 3% and 4% in 2014-2015.

In regard to when we will return to the markets, it remains the policy of the National Treasury Management Agency, NTMA, to test the market in the third or final quarter of next year. However, it is not intended, and never was, that we would be fully funded in 2012 without help from the outside agencies. Deputy Michael McGrath will be aware that that is what is provided for in the programme negotiated by the previous Government. While we face many difficulties in this country at present there is reason to be optimistic. There is much change in Europe and two years is a long time. We will see how things work out. All we can do is work at it every day.

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