Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)

The figures I read out were provided by the Department of Finance in advance of preparation of the budget introduced by the former Minister for Finance, Deputy Brian Lenihan. These figures will obviously vary. I am giving the current set of figures available in the Department, without saying whether I believe them to be correct. I am aware that the IMF and EU Commission figures, both of which are at 0.9% for 2011, differ from ours. Reuters run a consensus growth figure across ten economies. The consensus growth figure from Reuters last week was 1.2%. The latest figure from Davy's, published yesterday, is 1.6%. There are variations on growth figures. I am not suggesting the Department of Finance figures will not change, are absolute or were not correct. Depending on the assumptions used and the perspective various growth figures emerge. When one builds these into the model one gets various results.

As regards the Deputy's other question, we have stated in the programme for Government that the level of correction in 2011 and 2012 will be adhered to by the Government in the quantum envisaged and that after 2012 we will undertake a review of the position and will make the necessary adjustments in the budgets for 2013, 2014 and 2015 to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2015. It is not possible to say at this stage what the quantum will be because of the variables, one of the principle being what will be the actual growth rate and the cost of the bailout as time goes by.

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