Arthur Morgan (Louth, Sinn Fein)

I welcome the opportunity to address this four year plan from a Government which has, at best, two months to run. It is wrongly entitled the national recovery plan. The national destruction plan would be a considerably more appropriate name, given that it is coming from a Government which is badly broken and split, and which has no credibility either internationally or here on this island. The sooner an election comes to deal with the matter, the better.

There are two aspects to this plan with which I have considerable problems. It is littered with regressive measures that will deflate the economy and there is no stimulus in it. It is all about deflation rather than the required stimulus. I will return to that point. A second concern is that it does not deal with the banking bailout cost. The Minister for Finance, Deputy Brian Lenihan, told us at the beginning of this crisis two years ago that the banking bailout would not cost the taxpayer a red cent, and if it required some front-loading of charges, the banks would be levied and the overall cost would be zero. How naive is that, and how can the Government not even address the issue of the bailout, with the significant cost to the taxpayers of this State? It does not concern just one generation but several, yet the matter is not addressed.

We can consider the Government's banking strategy. Representatives from the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission are in town and I am due to meet them immediately after this contribution. They are negotiating with the Government, which still does not know the cost of the bailout two years on. It is important to point out that in those years the Government has focused almost entirely on the banking sector and has not produced any significant stimulus package to create or retain jobs. This is all about the banks, yet two years on there is still no idea of the cost of the banking bailout.

It was telling that yesterday during Leaders' Questions when Deputy Enda Kenny queried the cost, the Taoiseach was hesitant. Deputy Kenny mentioned the figure of €85 billion that has been mooted for some time and asked if the final figure would be greater. The Taoiseach replied that the figure could be close to that figure and he did not think it would go into triple figures; he mentioned that we are looking at double figures. The €85 billion consists of 11 figures, not double figures. Is it any wonder that we are where we are under this Government when it is so casual about these matters?

It is ironic that a Minister, Deputy Eamon Ryan, was cautioning us in his contribution to these statements. He indicated that we must be very careful with figures and should not throw them around. The Government should provide the figures if that is the case, as I believe the cost of the bailout will be well in excess of €85 billion. It will be closer to €120 billion or €140 billion. I hope it can be contained.

The Government is not good with figures as it thought the deficit was in the order of €7 billion but we now know it is €15 billion. In September the Government thought the required adjustment for this year would be €3 billion but it is now €6 billion. Imagine a member of that Government cautioning the Opposition and Members of the House to be careful with figures when that is being thrown around.

The IMF is probably serious about trying to get to grips with how much this bailout will cost. Its representatives have gone to the banks and may have had to push out some of those hanging on from the bad days who created this mess in the first place. Almost half the boards of the banks and executives who led the banks through this crisis, who brought us deep into the mire with the Government looking the other way or encouraging them in some cases, are still in place. That is completely unacceptable. There is now the prospect of the IMF trying to establish the exact figures and proposing the course of action to be followed.

I mentioned the board members and directors of the banks. More than two years later not one of these is in prison or has even been brought before the courts. I wonder why this is so. Who is blocking the justice system and what roadblocks are in place preventing some kind of inquiry? The Garda investigation has been ongoing for some time so what is preventing it coming to a conclusion with people being charged and hauled before the courts, as happens in any other walk of life? The golden circle seems to be exempt even from the justice process of the State, which is shocking.

We are discussing how much the bailout will cost but whatever it is it will be too much. We cannot afford the bailout as we do not have the industrial and economic base in this small State or across this island for it. A conclusion must be reached sooner rather than later, although how can it be sooner, given that two years have elapsed? There will either be a negotiation or a burning of bondholders. There may be a debt for equity swap. Something must be done because this State, even with the significant bailout from the IMF and ECB, cannot afford the process. A large part of our financial difficulties come from it.

In his opening contribution to this debate the Taoiseach cautioned us that the problem will require focused attention on the economic crisis. It needs somebody to figure out the problem and deal with it, which the Government has not done. We have had no leadership from the Government at all in the banking crisis, so what good is that focused attention? Ireland's banks are bust and we should decouple them from sovereign debt. We must deal with them in the way I outlined by dealing with the bondholders and finishing with the issue once and for all.

The bailout will not reduce the amount we owe by even one euro and we will still have to pay a crippling debt in return for the bailout from the ECB and IMF. That will see Ireland accept more debt, primarily because the interest rate, as speculated on currently, is in the order of 5%. We have no idea if the figure is right as it comes from speculation. The 5% figure can be compared to the figure just above 1% that we got from the ECB recently, which shows our position in real terms. The Government has indicated that as recent developments in the international bond markets have shown, persisting with the current scale of borrowing will result in interest rates remaining at unaffordable levels. We know that and sovereign bond markets are punishing Ireland while the current policy of protecting all bank bondholders remains in place. That will continue until the Government gets real on the issue.

The Minister for Social Protection, Deputy Ó Cuív, is present in the Chamber. I regard him as a person conscientious about his work and position in the Government. I hope somebody in the Cabinet will bring this message to the debate and look for the Government to wise up. I know the Government is being driven by the European Commission on saving these bondholders but it should look to what is right for the Irish people. The Government should remember them in some of these negotiations.

With regard to the regressive measures mooted in this plan, the Government has always said it will do what is fair and equitable, protect the vulnerable and go after those who can afford it. Let us have a look at that statement. I do not believe the reduction in the minimum wage is fair and equitable. As Deputy Noonan indicated, most of those earning the minimum wage are students or women in menial, tough jobs. Rather than giving poor devils who work hard a payment of €8.65 per hour, the pay of those on the minimum wage will be reduced. They also face a double whammy because they will be drawn into the tax net under the Government's taxation proposals. Instead of dealing with wealthy bondholders - the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, Deputy Eamon Ryan, identified them earlier, although we knew already that they are large pension funds and insurance companies - the Government is going after those on the minimum wage by reducing their pay and hammering them for a second time through the tax code.

The document does not give any indication that the Government proposes to go after those earning big bucks such as the chief executives of semi-State companies who have salaries of more than €500,000 per annum. Perhaps the Minister will indicate the reason for this oversight. Will individual Cabinet Ministers indicate whether they contributed to the debate at Cabinet level on whether to protect those on the minimum wage or allow the extremely wealthy to continue to enjoy huge salaries? We will be told the Government went after the latter group when it reduced salaries by 7% and by a further amount thereafter. That is nonsense because those at the top of the pile are getting off virtually scot-free. It is grossly unfair that those at the bottom of the rung are hammered on every occasion. The Government is looking in the wrong place by focusing on marginalised people who can least afford cuts rather than those who can afford them.

The Government's plan proposes to reduce the threshold at which income tax is paid to bring people on the minimum wage into the tax net. The document does not propose to go after people who are earning in excess of €100,000 per annum, as proposed by Sinn Féin in the pre-budget submission it made to the Government some weeks ago. We proposed the introduction of a new tax rate of 48% for those earning in excess of €100,000. Did the Minister or any of his colleagues read the Sinn Féin document which I sent to the Minister for Finance?

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