Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)

When discussing the reliability of forecasts, I accept Deputy Noonan's point that there is scope for error but that does not absolve the Government from making judgments and assessments, as it is obliged to do. These were the forecasts made in respect of 2010 but if one considers the IMF's forecast for 2011, it stood at 1% at the time of budget 2010 whereas it now stands at 2.3%. One can discuss forecasts and models and I acknowledge the ESRI has a HERMES model, which, as I understand it, is the single fully developed model in the country. However, I note that in 2009, the HERMES model predicted very substantial growth next year, which will not materialise. Moreover, in respect of the four-year adjustment, the Deputy referred to Professor Lane's observations on macroeconomic models and the adequacy of data. I agree with the Deputy regarding the property market about which our data are somewhat inadequate because of the absence of any transparent information thereon. However, regardless of the forecasting data, the Government must make a judgment and as I indicated to the House earlier, I will endeavour to supply Members with as much information as possible, even in advance of the four-year plan, on such matters in order that they can make their own forecasts and compare them with those of the Department. However, my Department looks at the different bodies concerned, considers the different data available to them and makes an assessment on that basis.

Deputy Costello asked about the extent of front-loading and this is a crucial issue on which the Government must make a final determination and which will be announced, at the latest, in the four-year plan itself.

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