Dáil debates

Thursday, 28 October 2010

Macroeconomic and Fiscal Outlook: Statements (Resumed)

 

11:00 am

Photo of Dermot AhernDermot Ahern (Louth, Fianna Fail)

To create jobs and growth, we need to stabilise the public finances. There is no other way. The path is clear. We have general consensus in this House. The goal of a 3% GDP deficit by 2014 must be reached. The question is how we reach it. The people look to the Houses of the Oireachtas for an answer, for the path to that goal. That goal must be realistic, deliverable, fair and must fill the gap between income and expenditure.

Talk will not fill that gap neither will vague political declarations about locating uncosted waste nor will merely repeating the words "change" and "leadership" over and over. That is over. Ireland needs concrete proposals now. That is what the four year plan is about.

Thanks to the hard work of the people, we can start from a position which is not all that bad, despite some of the negative remarks earlier. Our exports are showing resilience. Foreign direct investment is holding up extremely well, employment is stabilising, costs are falling and business confidence is improving. We are proceeding from a platform which is stabilising, with an immensely talented, educated and intelligent workforce.

We are number one in the world for jobs created by foreign direct investment. Our stock of direct investment is five times greater than the OECD average. The value of exports in July was up 12% when compared with July 2009. Irish businesses are competing internationally, and are winning.

Crucially, as we drive recovery forward, unemployment will begin to fall. September's live register fell for the first time since February. Both the ESRI and the Central Bank are now forecasting reductions in unemployment in the period ahead. It is not recognised and we should accept that there are 1.86 million people at work today. That is approximately 0.5 million more than in 1997. However, it is not enough. The number of people - our friends, relatives and neighbours - who are out of work is far too high. The only way to get people back to work is by making the reforms and the adjustments that are now being made and which will be set out further in the four year plan.

There is consensus on the end game. Again, that is to reach the target of a 3% GDP deficit by 2014. The House is all but united in its shared determination to achieve that goal. That alone sends out a very strong signal internationally. Where there is no consensus yet is on the detail of achieving that. Greater consensus is possible and I urge the parties opposite not to run from the constructive approach set out by the Taoiseach in the past few weeks.

We all know there are millions of ways to avoid consensus. It is easy to say before one presents any concrete costed proposals that we need this figure or that figure, that we need to see this forecast or that forecast and that we need to see the other party's plans first. I believe we should be past all that now.

We all know that parties do not want to associate themselves with bad news, and that is understandable. We all know that parties want to stick to talking about change and leadership while avoiding all definition of change and leadership, and that too is very understandable. However, it is not tenable at this time.

There is a gap of billions of euro to be filled. It is not rocket science. There is a gap between what we spend and what we take in of €19 billion.

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