Michael Noonan (Limerick East, Fine Gael)

Yes, it is averaged out. We both know the predictions for next year are 2% and perhaps 3% annually from 2012 to 2014, inclusive. Three threes are nine and two makes eleven, and a quarter of that is 2.75. That is where we are getting the average. It is significant that the 2% figure for next year is not sufficient to allow the Minister to take a quarter of €15 billion as the correction for next year. The Minister will have to do more up front, as he says himself.

A very small variation has a huge effect here. Davy's growth forecast for 2011 is 1.9%, and 2.2% for the subsequent years up to 2014. That would drive the correction up to over €20 billion. On the other hand, the ESRI has updated its high growth target to assume an average annual growth of 4.5%. Maybe it is right or perhaps it is wrong. They have two scenarios of high growth and low growth. If its high growth scenario is right and instead of 2.75% the annual growth rates were 4.5%, a smaller package would be needed. We would achieve the 3% budget deficit target in 2014 with a cut of only €9 billion. That is a long way short of €15 billion.

I think the Minister can understand the position of the Opposition. When the €15 billion is a forecast and when minor adjustments in the growth rate can make such vast variations, would we not be desperate clowns to tie ourselves in to the Minister's figure, especially when the Taoiseach could not answer Deputy Gilmore this morning when he asked what was factored into the estimate of growth? Deputy Gilmore asked about all the elements of growth and the Taoiseach looked blankly at him. We do not know whether the Cabinet had a punt in the dark on their way out of Farmleigh and came up with €15 billion or whether it was handed down to them by the EU Commission when the Minister visited Brussels.

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