Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)

First, Deputy Gilmore will be aware from the briefings that his finance spokespersons have received that data is currently being compiled for the plan. When the plan has been agreed and approved by Government in due course, it will be published and can be debated in the House. We can set out the various assumptions that are in the plan.

Deputy Gilmore was talking about forecasts being wrong. Forecasts, by their very nature are set out on basic assumptions that are made at the time. The real question is whether they were justifiable at the time. What has happened is that on the 2010 budget forecasts for the subsequent years the Government took forecasting models from the high growth and low growth scenarios that were set out in the ESRI reports at the time. The forecasts for the years ahead were justifiable at the time. It was the received view that this was the case. We were talking about increasing growth rates of between 3% and 4% over the period. In one of the year's a growth rate of 4.5% was predicted. The figures set out are in documentation that is publicly available. I do not have them in front of me.

What has happened since then, which must be taken into account, was not part of the forecast at the time. Forecasts, by definition, have that constraint. They are forecasts. The Greek situation occurred in April and it had an impact on bond markets. We had a further review of what growth prospects in the American economy would be, which were downward. We have had downside risks emerging in terms of the growth potential in the European economy. All that has changed.

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