Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)

Taking the subordinated debt into account, it is estimated that NAMA will have to achieve less than a 10% uplift over the current market values on its assets over ten years to break even. Let us put that figure in perspective; assuming that NAMA were to dispose of the majority of its assets in the second half of the decade, this uplift in property values would be achieved even if values kept pace with general consumer price inflation. In that case, real - that is, inflation adjusted - property prices in ten years' time would still be 45% below their values of late 2006. To be clear, there is no assumption in our work that peak property prices will be repeated. The Governor of the Central Bank, Mr. John Hurley, and the incoming Governor, Professor Patrick Honohan, have stated to me that having regard to the uncertainty in property price movements, the proposed add-on of 15-18% to the estimated current market price does not seem out of proportion with the range of potential upward price movements, especially when a risk sharing element is included.

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