Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)

Excellent. I welcome the debate because it provides an opportunity before the House recesses to review what impact the recent budget has had. Sadly, the economic details published since the budget suggest that it is not even achieving the objectives set in its own narrow terms. The ESRI and, today, the OECD indicate that the Government will not meet its budgetary targets. More worrying is what they claim will occur to the real economy. According to the ESRI, 300,000 jobs will be lost between 2009 and 2010. The impact on families will be immeasurable. The OECD's report, published today, suggests that the decline in GDP will be 20% worse than forecasted by the ESRI. If true, 20% can be added to the predicted job losses, if not more. Another 60,000 or 80,000 jobs being wiped out on top of the ESRI's forecast is frightening.

My continuing concern with the budget is its narrow focus. It has taken the easy route of raising tax and cutting capital spending. The Minister rightly stated that the core action for policy was to deal with value for money within public spending. However, he put this off and asked others, the McCarthy Group, to investigate the issue. The determination and decision to put things off, to refuse to face consequences and to aim for the tax-raising option instead, are not affordable. In our heart of hearts, we know that the way out of this recession will not be found by loading taxes onto families and businesses that are already under severe pressure.

The success of the banking policy, which the Government believes is the pillar of its strategy, is yet to be seen in practical terms, given the fact that businesses cannot get credit. The Minister will tell the House that the anecdotal evidence given to us by people around the country is not supported by hard evidence. Where is the Minister's review of credit? In March, we were to have detailed reports on declined credit, that is, where companies had been turned down, and on how credit was flowing to small businesses. The Minister did not deliver. Although we committed money to guaranteeing the banks, their commitment to showing whether they were meeting the needs of small businesses has not been honoured, not even to the extent of providing to the Minister the statistics promised to the Dáil.

We are in a serious dilemma. Like our predecessors, including the former Minister for Finance, Seán Lemass, who later became Taoiseach, we must recognise-----

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