Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)

The Government considered carefully how savings could be made in the welfare area. In the budget last October, it increased payments by approximately 3%. That increase was given and decided upon by the Government on the basis of a forecast that suggested there would be inflation this year of that order. That was only last October. As I noted recently in this House, the science of economic forecasting has become like meteorology and it is extremely difficult to predict the economic weather. The position has moved to one in which the forecast this year is that the cost of living will reduce and not increase. However, the Government is not prepared to adjust social welfare rates on the basis of a forecast.

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