John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)

When I presented the carbon budget in October, I pointed out that the projections available at that time in terms of greenhouse gas emissions were likely to overstate the position for the Kyoto period, given the rapidly changing economic outlook. This has been confirmed in the most recent analysis by the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, published on 13 March. This analysis takes account of a macro-economic scenario prepared by the ESRI which assumes that GNP will contract by 7% between 2007 and 2010. Based on this information, the EPA has projected that with full implementation of all of the emission reduction measures already announced, the distance to target for Kyoto compliance will now be between 1.3 million and 1.8 million tonnes per annum over the 2008-12 period.

Deputies will be aware that the distance to target is the gap which must be bridged by further measures or by Government purchases of credits under the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol. It is now clear that the deterioration in the short-term macro-economic outlook will exceed that scenario, thus even these latest greenhouse gas projections are already out of date. Some commentators have suggested that we may now achieve Kyoto compliance without any recourse to carbon credits. Definitive judgment in this regard must be informed by further analysis by the EPA. In the meantime, I want to inform the House that I have asked the NTMA to put on hold its programme of carbon purchasing for the foreseeable future. Those purchases to which we are already committed should be certainly adequate to meet whatever need is likely to arise in the Kyoto period. Also, any surplus can be carried forward for use after 2012.

Our climate change policy needs to look far beyond Kyoto compliance. It would be a profound misunderstanding of the realities of climate change to see these recent developments as a reason to ease off on our efforts to drive down emissions across the economy. Under the new EU climate package, we must by 2020 reduce our emissions by 20% from their 2005 level. We will have an even more ambitious target when there is a new global agreement on climate change. For this reason, side-by-side with the Government's work to secure our economic recovery, we have maintained our focus on climate policy. The home insulation incentives announced recently will generate employment while reducing emissions from the sector. This has proved extremely popular with up to 94,000 households now registered. The smarter travel strategy provides the framework for a more sustainable transport future. We are placing a major emphasis on the role of green technology in our economic recovery.

Last week's signing of an agreement with Nissan and Renault is an important sign of our intent to exploit the potential of electric vehicles. Work is continuing, under the Joint Committee on Climate Change and Energy Security, on the development of further measures. Every crisis must be turned into an opportunity. Our response to this crisis must be to ensure that when economic growth resumes it will be on a low-carbon trajectory.

Not everything is about how much we spend on this service or that project. We must also look at the way we do things to ensure we are effective and sharply focused in the right direction.

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