Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)

I will be as brief as possible and might make some more substantive comments on the next resolution.

Speaking as a doctor and a non-smoker, I can see the case for increasing excise on tobacco from a health point of view. I am concerned, however, by the Government's projection that it will raise €32 million from this. I do not think that will happen. There is a law of diminishing returns with taxation. There is a significant amount of cigarette smuggling as we all know. The year on year, monthly returns from tobacco are interesting. Last month was the first in which the year on year return from excise on tobacco went down. That might perhaps be because of a sudden reduction in smoking, for the first time ever, but the likelihood is that it is due to fraud and smuggling. This is one of the many holes in the budget. Revenue from excise on tobacco will fall for several reasons and the Government will have to address that. It will have to come back in its mini-budget in June or September, or whenever it will introduce the next budget-----

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