Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)

I propose to take Questions Nos. 1 and 2 together.

In early July my Department published a technical economic update which set out forecasts for 2008, based on the latest information available at that time. On this basis, unemployment was expected to average 5.8%, or in numerical terms some 132,000 during 2008. This compares to unemployment of 4.5% or 101,000 over the 2007 period.

At the end of this month, as is usual, my Department will make its six-monthly return to EUROSTAT setting out the overall fiscal position, including the general Government balance for the years up to 2007 and my Department's forecast for 2008. This forecast will take account of the latest fiscal information available at that time.

In announcing the bringing forward of budget 2009, I stated that my Department's latest assessment indicated a tax shortfall significantly in excess of that previously expected for 2008. September is a key month for tax revenue and while we do not have full month data yet, early indications suggest that the poor performance in tax receipts witnessed over the summer months is continuing. My Department is closely monitoring overall tax performance in the run-up to the budget.

My Department will publish an updated view on expected tax and Exchequer positions at the end of this quarter. A comprehensive assessment of the fiscal and economic position will be contained in the budget which will be published on 14 October 2008. As is normal, I will not comment on the contents of the budget in advance of that date.

See this speech in context