Michael Finneran (Roscommon-South Leitrim, Fianna Fail)

Climate change is the biggest challenge facing humanity. Global warming threatens not just our quality of life but the very survival of the planet and all who live on it. If it is allowed to continue unchecked, the sheer scale of potential disruption and destruction of people and the environment is almost beyond comprehension.

In recent years scientific research has been profound. Last year the research was collated and presented in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC. All countries have recognised that the report represents the most comprehensive and authoritative assessment of climate change to date and provides an integrated scientific, technical and socio-economic perspective on relevant issues. The research has found that climate change has been caused by man-made emissions and that if these emissions continue to grow, they will have potentially catastrophic effects throughout the globe by the end of this century.

Some of the key findings are truly shocking and worth recalling. Climate change is unequivocal. There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. Global total annual greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have risen by 70% since 1970. Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, now far exceed the natural range in the last 650,000 years. Global temperatures have increased by 0.74° since 1906 and our current emissions alone have built-in approximately another 0.5° of an increase. Of the past dozen years 11 ranked among the 12 warmest since 1850. The pace of sea-level rise increased from 1.8mm per year in 1961 to 3mm per year in 2005. Temperatures are likely to rise by between 1.1° and 6.4° Celsius, and sea levels by between 18 centimetres and 59 centimetres this century. Human-induced global warming could lead to impacts that are "abrupt or irreversible". There is high confidence that by mid-century many semi-arid areas such as the Mediterranean basin and the western United States will suffer a decrease in water resources. Between 75 and 250 million people in Africa may experience water stress by 2020. Almost one third of plant and animal species will be at increased risk of extinction if global temperatures increase by 1.5° to 2.5° Celsius from late 20th century levels. If temperature increases exceed 3.5°, between 40% and 70% of species may be at increased risk of extinction. Consequently, it is essential that carbon dioxide emissions peak within less than ten years. Global CO2 emissions must be reduced by 50% to 85% relative to 2000. This would limit global warming at 2° to 2.4° Celsius above pre-industrial levels and thereby reduce significantly the number directly affected by climatic stresses.

It is possible to take action, despite the enormity of the scale of such findings. The IPCC has also stated there is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades which could offset the projected growth in global emissions, or reduce emissions below current levels.

Another finding is that addressing climate change is affordable. The macro-economic cost of stringent mitigation would be equivalent to global GDP being 3% lower in 2030 than it would be if no mitigation measures were undertaken. This is equivalent to a reduction in the annual global GDP growth rate of 0.12%. If we take such measures, we will delay reaching the same level of GDP in 2030 by less than 12 months.

Ireland is not immune from climate change. The recent research report by Met Éireann outlined a number of predicted impacts. Our climate will continue to warm with possible increases of 3° to 4° Celsius towards the end of the century, resulting in wetter winters and drier summers. These changes in precipitation and temperature are likely to increase the risk of flooding in winter and reduce water supplies in summer. Sea levels around Ireland are rising by 3.5 cm per decade and the frequency of intense cyclones affecting Ireland is likely to increase. Ocean modelling suggests a consequent increase in the frequency of storm surge events around Irish coasts.

The European Union has based its international strategy on climate change on this scientific background. If we are to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, the Union wants to ensure the global temperature does not rise by more than 2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the next century. The only way this can be achieved is through very significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, primarily in developed countries. The Union's objective is to stabilise global emissions within the next decade or so and, by 2050, cut them by at least 50% below 1990 levels. Developed countries must continue to lead by reducing their emissions in the order of 30% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels with a view to collectively reducing their emissions by 60% to 80% by 2050. This will keep us on track towards the 2° Celsius target and is consistent with the IPCC findings.

Efforts by industrialised countries alone will not suffice. Developing countries, particularly emerging industrialising economies, must be encouraged to reduce the emission intensity associated with their economic growth. This would require new incentives and flexible commitments, in addition to further transfer and deployment of climate-friendly technologies, as part of a new international agreement.

Between now and the UN climate conference in Copenhagen in December 2009, there will be an opportunity for the global community to act on climate change. The European Union is determined to demonstrate a leadership role in the UN negotiations. Last year, the European Union set out its aims for a comprehensive and fair international agreement to come into force by the end of 2012. The Union is willing to reduce its emissions by 30% by 2020 compared to 1990 as part of an effective international agreement. It expects other industrialised countries to take on similarly ambitious reduction targets so developed countries as a whole will reduce their emissions by 30% by 2020.

The European Union is determined to demonstrate that this scale of reduction is achievable and that it, the Union, is committed to transforming its economy into a low-carbon economy. As a result, it made an independent commitment to reduce its own emissions by at least 20% by 2020, which it is willing to increase to 30% as part of an effective international agreement.

The European Union played a pivotal role and provided global leadership at the UN climate change conference last December in Bali in Indonesia. That conference set out a path to reach an international agreement on a par with the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. It established a negotiations roadmap on how we are to reach that new international climate change agreement. That, in itself, was a significant victory, bringing reluctant developed nations such as the United States together with developing countries to reach agreement on the best way forward.

For the first time in over a decade and a half, all countries, both developed and developing, are negotiating new commitments for all to take action to address climate change. This represents remarkable progress by the global community. If we look back just four years, we will note the global picture was much bleaker. The United States had already rejected the Kyoto Protocol. The protocol itself had not even entered into force as an insufficient number of countries had ratified it. Only the leadership demonstrated by European Union brought us to the current position.

The UN conference launched formal negotiations among the 192 parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, on action up to and beyond 2012. These formal negotiations will involve the United States, which is a party to the UNFCCC but not to the Kyoto Protocol. The conference set out a roadmap to guide the negotiations, which includes the key building blocks of a future agreement. These are enhanced mitigation of climate change by limiting or reducing emissions; enhanced adaptation to climate change; action on technology development and transfer; and the scaling up of finance and investment to support mitigation and adaptation.

The Bali agreement acknowledges explicitly the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's recent fourth assessment report, emphasises the urgency of addressing climate change and recognises that deep cuts in global emissions will be required to reach the convention's objective of preventing dangerous levels of climate change. At the European Union's insistence, it also makes reference to a section of the report that demonstrates that emissions reductions for developed countries in the range of 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 are required to limit global warming to 2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Enhanced action to mitigate climate change will be a key focus of negotiations. The roadmap envisages commitments or actions by developed countries, including quantified objectives for limiting and reducing emissions. Developing countries will also take action, but in their case no reference is made to quantified emissions objectives.

In parallel with these negotiations under the climate change convention, the parties to the Kyoto Protocol will continue negotiations already under way on new post-2012 emissions targets for developed countries that are in the protocol. The negotiations under both tracks, that is, the convention and protocol, will be completed at the UN climate change conference to be held at the end of 2009 in Copenhagen. The European Union and many other parties insisted on this simultaneous deadline to ensure a coherent result.

This provides the global political and scientific background for the publication of the climate and energy package by the Commission at the start of this year in response to a request by the member states' Governments. It is important to recall that the full climate and energy package encompasses more than measures pertaining to greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to including proposals on climate, the package includes measures to increase the use of renewable energy, to enhance energy efficiency, to provide a regulatory framework to stimulate carbon capture and storage technology and to amend state aid rules to support environmental actions. The aim of the package is to reduce the European Union's dependence on fossil fuel, to enhance the competitiveness of the European economy, and to reduce European greenhouse gas emissions. The energy and climate measures mutually support the attainment of these goals.

The revised emission trading scheme, ETS, and the effort-sharing proposals specifically set out how the European Union will achieve its independent target of 20% below the 1990 level by 2020. To achieve this 20% target, the European Union needs to cut its 2005 emissions by 14%. The 14% reduction is achieved by two separate but linked measures, namely, the revision of the ETS and the effort-sharing proposals. Under the revision of the ETS, the energy and industrial sectors have an EU-wide cap that is to reduce ETS emissions to 21% below 2005 levels by 2020.

The basic principle for the allocation of allowances is auctioning as this is the most transparent process and eliminates windfall profits. Industries that are subject to international competition from outside the European Union will be subject to special treatment, including the possibility of free allocation of allowances. The European Commission will report on "carbon leakage" by 2011 with appropriate proposals, as necessary.

Under the effort-sharing proposal, there was a need to take into account the wide divergence of wealth in the EU 27. As a result, the Commission used GDP per capita as a criterion for differentiating between member states' ability to pay for the necessary actions within the limitations of -20% and +20% targets. In this context, a reduction target of -20% was proposed for Ireland as a function of our high GDP per capita. The Commission proposal has included flexibilities in terms of how a member state can meet its commitments without undermining the level of ambition of the climate and energy package and ensuring significant action is taken within the European Union.

Naturally, the proposals raise serious economic and social issues for Ireland and a detailed analysis of the elements of the package is ongoing in the relevant Departments. Given the scale of the implications of the proposals for the citizen, it is important that decisions on the elements of the package be seen to arise from a fair and transparent process. However, it is important to reiterate that the Government fully supports the targets agreed by the Heads of State and Government at the European Council meeting in the spring of 2007 to reduce the European Union's emissions by at least 20% by comparison with 1990 levels by 2020 and by 30% as part of a global comprehensive agreement.

Ireland is playing its part, at national level and within the European Union, but also in supporting international efforts to achieve consensus on a comprehensive global response to climate change. The Ireland National Climate Change Strategy 2007-2012, published last year, sets out the measures by which Ireland will meet its Kyoto Protocol commitments, and how these measures will position us to achieve further significant emission reductions in the period beyond 2012. Since taking office, the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government has taken a number of additional steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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