Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)

On the basis that the growth rate will not be 4.5%, it is clear that we will not be able to implement all aspects of the programme for Government. The latter is, after all, based on the assumption of achieving such a rate of growth. We must prioritise certain areas of activity, ensure we make the correct strategic decisions in order to increase the capacity of the economy and make it able to withstand the competitive pressures to which it is being subjected and emerge from this difficult period with as resilient and as good an economy as possible. Even if we were not experiencing difficulties such as those with which we are faced, in the absence of a growth rate of 4.5% we could not achieve full implementation of the programme for Government. The consequence of that will be set out during the course of this year and, indeed, in the next budget. As is the case in every Budget Statement, we will set out our medium-term strategy based on our expectations for the debt to GDP ratio. That is the normal budgetary provision over a three year period but it is clear from the level of growth achieved this year that the elimination of debt is not an achievable target during the course of this Administration. We have to devise a sustainable public finance position which will address the present situation, allow the economy to continue to function and provide basic levels of service, while at the same time ensuring that we return to the medium-term growth rates discussed by the ESRI in its report.

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