Dan Neville (Limerick West, Fine Gael)

I welcome the opportunity to support the motion on Zimbabwe, which faces a deepening political crisis marked by state-sponsored violence against opposition party supporters. Following the 29 March presidential and parliamentary elections in which the opposition won control of parliament and won more votes in the presidential contest, the Government unleashed a nationwide campaign of violence against opposition groups. At least 32 supporters of the Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, have been killed while more than 700 have sought medical treatment, 6,700 have been replaced and more than 1,000 have been arrested. All signs point to the situation worsening rather than improving, with the Government using violence and intimidation ahead of the run-off presidential election announced by the Government. Zimbabwean President Mugabe has never been so close to losing power and appears willing to use all means available to physically beat his opponents into submission.

As the international community considers its response to the complex crisis in Zimbabwe, the first order of business must be to stop the violence and all international effort must be applied to doing so. The EU and Ireland must engage diplomatically with African leaders to discuss a common way forward and put pressure on the regime to end the violence. To prevent an escalation of the violence and a degeneration into state-sponsored mass atrocities, as we have seen previously under President Mugabe's direction, the international community must also act to ensure a legitimate, democratic government is seated in Zimbabwe. International diplomats should co-operate with African leaders to develop a plan of incentives pressurising Mugabe to leave and an alternative plan should he defy the democratic will of Zimbabwe and remain in power.

Has the Irish Government been active enough since this House's all party resolution on Zimbabwe on 4 December 2007 to support fair and free elections and promote human rights and democracy in Zimbabwe? We might well ask what little Ireland can do but we must remember that Mozambique and Tanzania are two of the most major recipients of Irish aid. Both of these SADC countries wield great political influence in the region and in Zimbabwe. The Irish Government should use this diplomatic opportunity to raise as a matter of urgency the issue of Zimbabwe in its diplomatic contacts with these countries. I congratulate the Irish Association of European Parliamentarians for Africa and its secretary Mr. Simon Murtagh on the efforts the association has put into raising the issue of human rights in Zimbabwe. There is no room for complacency, especially as political violence increases in Zimbabwe. We were recently told by the Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights that 22 people have been killed and 900 tortured in political violence in the past four weeks alone.

Zanu-PF's losses in the 29 March election were unexpected given that the ruling party's history of vote-rigging made an opposition victory extremely unlikely. In January of this year President Mugabe backed out of South African mediation talks with the MDC and announced plans for a snap election just two months later, indicating he was absolutely confident he would win that election because the MDC was reeling from internal divisions that split the party and produced competing MDC candidates in many electoral districts. Everything was set for President Mugabe to win that election but political violence, corruption and gross mismanagement of the economy proved Zanu-PF's undoing. In the past three years many Zimbabweans resorted to the barter system after six-digit inflation left the Zimbabwean dollar nearly worthless. Starvation hit rural areas while fuel shortages and dwindling imports of spare parts brought transportation to a standstill. Unemployment was conservatively placed at 80% and even office workers in the capital city ate one meal a day and walked out of their jobs because they could not afford transportation. Yet Zanu-PF was so convinced of the MDC's weakness that it called an election despite the crumbling state of affairs. This miscalculation was evident from an early stage.

Independent estimates confirm that the leader of the opposition defeated President Mugabe in the presidential elections by winning approximately 50% of the total vote, the number above which a run-off election would be unnecessary. To its credit the MDC will contest the run-off elections but there is widespread scepticism that the second round of presidential elections will be held before the Zimbabwean Government's latest deadline of 31 July. This will give more space and will allow President Mugabe and his forces to further militarise the situation, victimise his opponents, seek to win the election through violent means and ensure there are not free and fair elections in Zimbabwe. We must insist on the resumption of peace and the broadest possible international observation of any second round of voting in Zimbabwe right across the country's 232 constituencies, including the most rural, before any round of voting can be regarded as legitimate. The key to the legitimacy will be the acceptance by the Zimbabwean Government and President of international observance of the elections, as has happened in many other African countries down through the years.

Where are the international envoys who could bring about a compromise solution in Zimbabwe, as happened in Kenya? Calls by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan should be supported by all. Massive diplomatic intervention represents the last best hope for peaceful resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe. The alternatives, either a bloody power struggle or another Mugabe term, are almost too horrible to contemplate. Both would lead to further violence in a nation long past the point of economic collapse and on the verge of state failure. If no agreement on Mugabe's exit can be reached the prospect for an internally driven end to the crisis are slim. When constitutional amendment No. 18 was approved in October 2007 allowing parliament to elect a successor in the event of the President's death, incapacitation or retirement, many analyses predicted Mugabe would transfer power and use the Zanu-PF dominated parliament to rubber-stamp his choice of successor. Now the Zanu-PF party has lost control of parliament Mugabe cannot hand pick his successor as he had intended. This increases the chances that he will choose to serve out his six-year term if he can utilise the current campaign of violence to successfully manipulate the presidential election outcome. Alternatively, Mugabe could choose to throw Zimbabwe into greater chaos by seeking to utilise presidential emergency powers to dissolve parliament and hold new elections in an effort to secure Zanu-PF dominance. Given the MDC's strength in the March election, such a move would throw Zimbabwe into greater chaos. In fact, Mugabe could only rig Zanu-PF dominance in parliament by waging another massive campaign of violence.

Meanwhile the economy will continue to implode. Economic progress is predicated on Mugabe's removal and the return of democratic institutions to Zimbabwe. Foreign investment will not return until investors see political stability and more favourable economic policies.

It is Zimbabwe's zero hour, a period that will be spoken of for generations as either a time when the region united to support the will of the people or a missed opportunity that led to thousands of deaths and a failed state. The road ahead is difficult but extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. Regional leaders must publicly recognise gross abuses of law by Zanu-PF and develop an African solution to an African problem by applying a focussed pressure on Mugabe to leave side-by-side with meaningful incentives for a solution. The West should provide support for this effort but be prepared to take strong action should the pressure fail to materialise and Mugabe fail to leave power.

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