Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)

It is a new line of attack from the Labour Party to suggest that I should have a tighter fiscal policy and no deficits. Perhaps the party would outline, in the course of the next weeks and months, what areas of current and capital expenditure it wishes to cut so we can accommodate its new fiscal stance. I will be glad to hear that. Comparing the challenges currently facing the economy as equivalent to those that faced the economy in 1980 is not only specious but absurd. The fundamentals of the Irish economy are far stronger now and we are in a far better position to withstand international pressures. When global conditions change and currency, financial and equity markets take the tumble they have taken since last autumn, which was after the election and was not predicted by the Deputy or anybody else, we must accommodate those changes as an open economy.

With regard to the growth rate, Davy Stockbrokers are in the lower band of predictions at 2.1% GNP. The predictions are: Central Bank — 3%, the ESRI — 2.3%, EU Commission — 3.5%, OECD — 2.9%, the IMF — 3%, AIB — 2.5%, Bank of Ireland — 4%, Friends First — 3%, Bloxham Stockbrokers — 3%, Goodbody Stockbrokers — 2.3%, National Irish Bank — 3.9% and Ulster Bank — 2.1%. Basically, these are predictions based on certain assumptions such as whether downside risks are realised, to what extent the current problem in the United States deteriorates, for how long that will happen and its impact. It is not correct to suggest that everybody is on the button in this matter. I predicted in my Budget Statement, despite setting out downside risks, a GDP growth rate of 3% for this year and GNP growth of 2.8%. Those predictions are broadly in line with the market consensus. They are not exactly what Davy Stockbrokers predict but there are other predictions that are even more optimistic. We took the median position, which was fair. Who will be right at the end of the day will depend on many things between now and next December.

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