Michael Mulcahy (Dublin South Central, Fianna Fail)

I am pleased to have this opportunity to add my voice to the debate on the Finance Bill 2008 which brings into law the main provisions of the Minister's Budget Statement of last December. No Finance Bill operates in a vacuum but rather within the economy as it pertains. There has been much commentary to the effect that the economy of 2008 will be very different from the economy of 2007 which was itself different from that of the heady years of the Celtic tiger. However, we should note that growth last year was in the region of 4.5% and is predicted to be in the region of 3% this year. Many economies would be extremely satisfied with growth rates of 3%. Our economy has grown by some 7% annually, on average, since 1997; a stunning performance. Some commentators contend that this has been achieved by somehow pumping the economy with money we do not have. The opposite is the case. I understand the National Treasury Management Agency reported in recent weeks that the national debt as a proportion of GDP had declined in 2007 from 24% to 23%. In a year where there was 4.5% growth, therefore, our level of indebtedness decreased by 1%. This is a level of national debt without parallel throughout the world, with the possible exception of Norway, which is outside the European Union, and Luxembourg.

In broad terms, therefore, our economy is in extremely good shape. However, I caution against complacency. There have been some job losses and there will be further losses in some areas. Unfortunately, it is an aspect of the global economy that jobs come and go at a quicker rate than heretofore. That is why it is all the more important that people have access to training and upskilling at every opportunity in order that they can be adaptable and flexible. The old notion of a job for life may no longer be relevant. In many of the more developed countries people change jobs with greater fluidity. There is a greater willingness in this country, especially in the public service, to employ people from different sectors and for people from the public service to move into the private sector. There are serious competitive issues, which I will address later.

By and large, we should acknowledge that the Irish economy is in very good shape, although we should not be complacent. There are, however, many media pundits who seem to make a perpetual living out of talking down the economy. I have no problem with serious constructive criticism and with people pointing out that the glass may be half empty and not half full. However, to state that by the end of the year, the glass will be entirely empty is almost irresponsible. These are peddlers of pessimism and they seem to operate with impunity day in, day out in order to sell their newspaper or to increase the ratings of their radio or television shows. If they are proved wrong by the end of this year, will they write articles and make television shows admitting that?

I am prepared to live with the forecast the Minister for Finance gave in his budget speech. He said that GDP growth this year would be 3%, that we would create 24,000 new jobs and that inflation would be at 2.4%. I am prepared to predict that will happen this year and to come into this House and eat humble pie if it turns out not to be the case in December.

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