Dermot Ahern (Louth, Fianna Fail)

I propose to take Questions Nos. 99 and 139 together.

After several years of deepening crisis, there have been clear signs of a significant improvement in the security situation in Iraq in the past six months. There has been a marked reduction in violence in almost all areas, especially Baghdad, and in many towns and cities something approaching normal civilian life has again become possible. However, as the appalling bombings in Baghdad demonstrated last week, the situation facing the Iraqi people remains fraught and dangerous.

The strengthened security drive launched by Iraqi and US forces has been a key element in the reduction in deaths and violent attacks. Other critical factors have been the suppression of groups linked to al-Qaeda in Sunni areas and a ceasefire by the main Shia militia, which had been implicated in widespread sectarian killings. While welcoming the improvement, it is important to note that none of these factors is irreversible.

It has been clear that there is no simple security solution in Iraq. Lasting peace and stability can only be assured through a process of genuine political reconciliation between the communities in Iraq and the co-operation of all its regional neighbours. Unfortunately, the political reconciliation process has moved more slowly than desired. The passage of a new law relaxing the exclusion of former Ba'athists from public life is an important step but other crucial issues remain deadlocked for now, including the review of the constitution, division of oil and gas revenues and the position of Kirkuk. There have been suggestions of a more pragmatic engagement between the parties behind the scenes and the UN has strengthened its efforts to promote progress. It is now essential that Iraqi leaders act urgently in the eased security climate to achieve real progress in these areas.

There have been various attempts to estimate the casualties in Iraq, with a wide range of figures being suggested. The respected NGO, Iraq Body Count, estimates that between 80,000 and 90,000 civilians have been killed since 2003. This may represent an underestimate of the actual figures but I have no means of assessing the accuracy of the different figures. Whatever the figures, there is no room for doubt as to the appalling level of suffering experienced by ordinary Iraqi people. Nor can we lose sight of the resulting refugee crisis. There are more than 2 million refugees outside Iraq, mostly in Syria and Jordan, and perhaps another 2 million internally displaced. It is encouraging to note that a good number have returned to Iraq in recent months but it is also clear that very large numbers will need humanitarian assistance for some time to come. The EU and Ireland nationally will continue to play their part in addressing this crisis.

The Government has outlined its position on the legality of the war on many occasions. Ireland was not ready to participate in the 2003 military campaign in the absence of an explicit Security Council mandate. Since October 2003, the presence of the multinational force in Iraq has been authorised by a series of UN Security Council resolutions. The latest resolution, adopted unanimously in December on the request of the Iraqi Government, extends the mandate to the end of 2008.

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