Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)

Exchequer tax receipts to the end of September were €31.462 billion, which was €490 million or 1.5% below profile. Based on the results to the end of September it appears likely that tax receipts will be up to €1 billion or about 2% below the budget day target. This deficit is largely accounted for by lower than expected receipts for stamp duty, capital gains tax and VAT, which reflects the change in the residential property market as it returns to more normal levels of activity. Excise duties are also expected to be below target whereas income tax and corporation tax are expected to exceed targets. However, the expected shortfall in tax revenue will be offset to some extent by positive developments on other elements of the Exchequer account.

At the end of September voted current expenditure was broadly on target, while voted capital expenditure was 8% ahead of profile. It is expected that at the end of the year total voted expenditure will be on target. Based on the overall end of September position, an Exchequer deficit of up to €1 billion is projected for 2007 compared to a budget day forecast of €546 million. This week I will lay the pre-budget outlook containing the pre-budget Estimates before the House when I will update my economic and fiscal projections, including my tax forecasts, for the years ahead and outlining the estimated cost from 2008 to 2010 of maintaining public services at existing levels.

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