Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)

At €31,462 million, Exchequer tax receipts to end-September were €490 million or 1.5% below profile. They were up 6.1% on the same period last year. Corporation tax and income tax both performed well, coming in at €296 million and €56 million above profile respectively, reflecting the health of the economy generally. Receipts from each of the other main tax heads were below profile. Stamp duties were €401 million below profile, excise duties were €225 million below, VAT was €132 million below and capital gains tax was €107 million below. A significant amount of tax revenue is due for collection in the last quarter of the year, especially in November when a particularly large share of tax is collected annually from corporation tax, capital gains tax and income tax of the self-employed.

The performance of tax revenue in the coming months, particularly in November, will inform the position for the year as a whole. As of now, a shortfall of up to €1 billion in taxes this year is the current estimate. However, this shortfall will be offset to some extent by positive developments on other elements of the Exchequer account and an overall Exchequer deficit of up to €1 billion now seems likely at year-end. The budget day estimate was for a deficit of €546 million this year.

As is customary, I will outline to the House in early December my budget for 2008. As an important first step I will publish my pre-budget outlook later this week.

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