Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)

Exchequer tax receipts to the end of May were, at €18.603 million, just €19 million or 0.1% below profile. They were 9.6% up on the same period last year. This compares with a budget day target of an increase of 7.8% for 2007 as a whole.

While overall tax receipts were almost exactly on target at the end of May, there are some variations under particular tax heads: corporation tax receipts are €221 million or 17.5% above profile; customs receipts are €4 million or 3.6% above profile; VAT receipts were €28 million or 0.4% below profile; income tax receipts are €56 million or 1.1% below profile; excise duties were €120 million or 4.7% below profile; stamp duties were €16 million or 1.1% below profile; and capital taxes were €71 million or 5.8% below profile. Of these, capital gains tax was €79 million or 7.2% below profile and capital acquisitions tax was €8 million or 5.1% above profile.

Given the significance of tax payments in the latter part of the year, it would be unwise to attempt to draw conclusions about the performance of the economy based on tax receipts at this early stage. The latest available economic estimates show that the economy continues to perform well. Preliminary CSO data for 2006 as a whole indicates that GDP growth was 6%, while, in GNP terms, the growth rate in 2006 was estimated at 7.4%.

In the circumstances, I do not see a need to revise our forecast at this stage. However, my Department monitors tax receipts on an ongoing basis and, as more data become available, any significant changes to the expected end of year receipts will be signalled once the position becomes clear.

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