Michael McDowell (Dublin South East, Progressive Democrats)

The report referred to by the Deputy is The Burden of Crime in the EU — a Comparative Analysis of the European Crime and Safety Survey (EU ICS) 2005. The survey was carried in the 15 old member states of the European Union plus Poland, Hungary and Estonia.

The findings of that survey need to be approached with caution. The sample size in the survey of approximately 2,000 is extremely small for a victimisation survey. Some of the incident types covered have a low incidence, which means any estimates are potentially subject to relatively high sampling error. The response rate of just over 41.8% is low, much lower than the CSO quarterly national household survey — crime and victimisation module. Furthermore, there are major differences in coverage, sample sizes and methods between the two surveys. The CSO survey was based on face-to-face interviews with 37,000 respondents in 29,500 households and the response rate was approximately 90%. The EU-ICS survey was a telephone survey — landline only — of 2,000 individuals using random digit dialling, with a response rate of less than 42%.

While the impact of such a low response rate is not entirely known, it could be that those who declined to participate did so on the basis that they had nothing to report, that is, that they were not victims of crime. If this were the case, the victimisation rates would be over-estimated.

The findings in regard to Irish rates for some personal crimes shown in the survey are surprising. Assaults and threats are measured at 4.9%, whereas the CSO reported this at 1.2% in its 2003 survey. Similarly, personal theft is measured at 7.3%, compared to a CSO figure of 3.1%. Theft from a car is estimated at 5.2%, compared to a CSO figure of 3.5%.

The report is not based on actual crime figures and differs quite considerably from surveys conducted by the CSO. It may be instructive to examine trends in reported actual crime, which is a matter of objective fact, over the period since 2003. Using CSO census data and inter-census estimates of population, the crime rate per 1,000 of the population dropped from 26 in 2003 to 24.5 in 2006, with the figures for 2004 and 2005 being 24.5 and 24.8 respectively. The crime rate per 1,000 of the population in 2006 was, therefore, the lowest in the period of office of this Government. By way of comparison, the crime rate per 1,000 of the population in 1996 was 27.8. The House will be aware that, at my initiative, recorded crime figures are now produced by the Central Statistics Office.

In July 2003, the Government approved my proposal that a regular national crime victimisation survey be carried out biennially as a valuable and useful complement to the information on crime already available. Such surveys would provide a more comprehensive perspective on crime victimisation than is currently available and, when undertaken on a regular basis, would provide useful information on emerging trends in crime and so provide input into developing strategies to combat crime.

Additional information not given on the floor of the House

It is expected that the CSO will publish the results of its crime and victimisation survey in April on the same basis as the 1998 and 2003 surveys. From 2008, the CSO will conduct a large scale crime and victimisation survey every two years.

None of what I have said should be seen as in anyway diminishing the concern which the Government has about crime levels. It is because of that concern that we are providing unprecedented resources to all the elements of the criminal justice system, including bringing the strength of the Garda Síochána up to 15,000. This, in turn, is being underpinned by a comprehensive programme of criminal law reform.

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