Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East, Labour)

I move amendment No. 40:

In page 12, to delete lines 3 and 4 and substitute the following:

"(b) thenceforth no later than every three years a statement of strategy must be brought before the Houses of the Oireachtas for approval.".

This group of amendments refers to the strategy statement of NORA. Subsection 15(1) provides that, as soon as the agency is established as an independent State body, a statutory statement will be submitted to the Minister for an initial five-year period. Amendment No. 40 proposes that subsequent statements of strategy be brought before the Houses every three years.

The timeframe for this is important, given that the oil market is extremely volatile. Oil prices have increased from $25 per barrel in late 2003 to $74 per barrel a few months ago. Just as we were becoming accustomed to high prices on the forecourts, the price fell to approximately $60. That is an indication of the speed at which circumstances can change with regard to oil stocks.

The majority of the world's oil resources are located in politically volatile countries. Iraq, for example, is in a state of civil war and on the point of collapse. The country used to equal Saudi Arabia and Iran in petroleum output but since the invasion of Kuwait, its production levels have been severely curtailed. All attempts made since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein to restore output have failed. At the beginning of this year, controversy arose with regard to gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine, although the situation seems to have since calmed, with agreement now reached on gas supply from Russia to the EU.

As the Minister noted, different State bodies operate according to differing timeframes. I have noted the long timeframes that govern the introduction of reforms and competition to electricity generation. An argument could be made that NORA should be faster in responding to general developments. Debate is currently raging on the extent of global oil reserves and the rate of depletion. Oil companies such as Exxon Mobil speculate that 3 trillion barrels of oil remain in the ground and that peak oil will not arrive for another 30 or 40 years. Other specialists believe the tipping point will be reached in 2008. The first strategy policy document would need to take this into account as early as the year after next. It would be a very difficult challenge for the incoming Government if it needed to respond to some definitive information that we are about to reach the moment of peak oil some time in 2008, based on the estimates of the so-called "early toppers" — the late toppers put it off for some decades. Some people point to speculation over the past 100 or 150 years that we would run out of oil and that many trillions of barrels remain to be explored. In that context I felt that NORA should have a faster response. If the next Government has a Department of energy, representatives of the agency would appear before an energy committee and would be responsible to the Minister. A strategy statement forming the basis for public discussion should also exist.

During questions to the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government earlier today, Deputy Gilmore and others discussed climate change and the cost to the country of carbon credits, which are very closely related to this matter. As the security of oil stocks is vital, it should be dealt with on a shorter timeframe — perhaps even a three-year period is too long and an annual report might be better. In the past two days the International Energy Agency issued its yearly report, which envisaged an enormous increase in the daily demand for oil from the current 84 million barrels to 116 million barrels in 2015. In that context our demand of in excess of 200,000 barrels per day is very significant. We will need to ensure that as we move towards renewable sources of energy and biofuels in the case of oil, we have such security on which to fall back. While the Minister might suggest a timeframe of less than three years, a review of strategy should take place earlier and should be specified.

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