Michael McDowell (Dublin South East, Progressive Democrats)

I consistently emphasise that care must be taken in interpreting statistics, especially when considering short-term fluctuations and extrapolating trends over short periods. I emphasised this when the level of crime decreased and, on occasion, when it increased. I have indicated my concerns at recent trends but we need to be conscious of what the figures taken over a prolonged period show. The level of headline crime in 2005 was lower than that for 2003 by 1.6% and for 2002 by 4.4%. Furthermore, in 1995, when we had a population of almost 3.6 million, there were 29 crimes per 1,000 of the population, while in 2005, with a better crime recording system and a population of more than 4.1 million, there were 24.6 crimes per 1,000 of the population, in other words, 15% crimes less per 1,000 of the population. By way of comparison, during 1995 and 1996, when the population was 600,000 fewer than now, there were 102,484 headline crimes and 100,785, respectively, although they are strictly comparable with current categories. These are equivalent to 29 crimes per 1,000 population in 1995 and 28 per 1,000 in 1996.

While no level of murder is acceptable, Ireland has one of the lowest murder rates in the western world. For example, figures recently published by the Scottish Executive show that between 2000 and 2002 the average homicide rate per year in Scotland was 2.27 per 100,000 head of population. In Glasgow it was 6.29 per 100,000 population. By comparison, in the same period Ireland had an average annual homicide rate of 1.89 per 100,000 population and the rate in Dublin was 2.12. Part of the increase in the crime figures for 2005 and the first quarter of 2006 reflects increased enforcement activity on the part of the Garda.

Operation Anvil has been expanded outside Dublin. For instance, earlier, in County Westmeath two armed robbers were apprehended as part of this operation and I congratulate the Garda on that success. The crime figures are challenging but I would not like to demoralise the Garda. In a changed Ireland when it comes to crimes per 1,000 head of population the force is doing better comparatively than ten years ago.

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