Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)

If one looks back over the past three years of the Minister's forecasts in respect of capital taxes, the aggregate increase he forecast in his Budget Statement was €40 million but the actual increase was €2,975 million. He was 7,440% out in his projection of the increase in capital taxes over the three years. That is a truly extraordinary deviation between forecast and actuality. To suggest, as the Minister does, that he is using best international practice to underpin these forecasts reflects poorly on best international practice which, I suspect, was not so far out.

Almost the entire overrun on tax is from the capital tax area in the past three years. The implication of this wrong estimation is that ordinary taxpayers are paying far more than the Dáil approved under the budget. It also means that the glowing claims the Minister makes at the end of each financial year that his figures have come in ahead of target have largely nothing to do with his management but are due to the people who are stumping up more and more money, particularly in stamp duties.

Does the Minister believe that the forecasts, which were 7,440% wrong, could conceivably be treated as best practice? Is there not a need for the Department's officials to go back to the various experts and re-examine how these yields are being estimated? It is putting a huge extra burden — a sum of €3,000 million over three years — on ordinary taxpayers.

See this speech in context